H&M sales expected to edge higher as turnaround continues


H&M investors will be hoping the high street fashion chain shows it is on the road to recovery next week despite caution among many shoppers.

The retailer is expected to report a slight rise in sales for the latest quarter in an update on Thursday June 26 as it continues with its turnaround strategy.

It comes after the Swedish firm reported weaker-than-expected sales for the first quarter of its financial year in its previous update in March.

H&M saw net sales grow 2% to 55.3 billion Swedish krona (ยฃ4.24 billion) for the three months to February 28.

However, it flagged that this slowed down to 1% in March amid continued pressure on consumer finances.

Sales growth was also knocked by H&Mโ€™s plans to trim its store estate and help simplify its operations over the past year.

H&M said it had 40 net store closures over the quarter and has continued to shut sites in recent months.

The overhaul of its store estate is part of a major turnaround plan under Daniel Erver, who became chief executive last year.

The group, which also owns & Other Stories and Cos, is seeking to accelerate recent sluggish growth.

Deutsche Bankโ€™s Adam Cochrane stressed however that trading in the latest quarter is โ€œunlikely to be the turning pointโ€.

He added: โ€œH&M is progressing through its turnaround but there will be relatively limited evidence of this in Q2, given the unhelpful weather conditions around Europe and the impact of negative currency exchange translation.

โ€œOur updated earnings forecast of 5.6 billion Swedish krona is showing a 21% decline year-on-year, better than 42% in Q1 but still hard to provide evidence of a sustainable turnaround.โ€

Mr Cochrane added that a build up in stock inventory at the end of the first quarter is unlikely to have completely unwound in recent months and could pose โ€œa further problemโ€ going into the second half of the year.

Deutsche Bank predicted H&M would see sales growth slow to 1.5% for the latest quarter but indicated this would be a roughly 5% drop once currency rates are taken into account.

Jefferies equity analyst James Grzinic is more pessimistic, pointing to growth of 0.5% for the quarter.

He said the brokerage is taking a โ€œmore cautious viewโ€ to H&Mโ€™s recent trading, after signs that the rival Chinese platforms are โ€œlosing momentumโ€ in the US.

Meanwhile, fellow rival Inditex, which owns Zara and Pull & Bear, saw growth slow down to 6% in recent weeks.

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