𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

I’m a believer. In Kemi, that is. I’ve attended three party conferences in recent weeks – Reform, Labour and Conservative. I came away convinced, for the first time, that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has a real chance of becoming prime minister.

Here are the reasons why:

Kemi Badenoch got off to a slow start. She’s admitted it herself, saying she’s got better as she learned how to do the job of Leader of the Opposition. When she was first elected Tory leader in 2024, plenty of her own MPs thought she’d be replaced before the next election.

Nobody is saying that now. She’s won the respect of her party and people who watch politics closely by taking the fight to Labour and winning. She battled the Government over its decisions to cut winter fuel payments, destroy family farms, and appoint Lord Mandelson as US ambassador, and forced them into U-turns every time. And the wider public is beginning to notice.

Polling shows that Kemi Badenoch has a better approval rating than most of her rivals – and it’s still getting better. In other words, the public likes her (or at least dislikes her less than they dislike most politicians).

But voters still don’t like the Conservative Party. So she’s done two things. One is constantly reminding people that the Conservative Party is “under new management” – and speaking bluntly about its past mistakes. She doesn’t fall into the trap of trying to tell voters they are wrong.

The second, as we saw in the recent Conservative conference, is to start talking about her team. In fact, in her conference speech, she said repeatedly that she had “a great team” – a phrase she used on three different occasions. Far from seeing her Shadow Cabinet colleagues as rivals, she’s secure enough that she wants some of the Kemi magic to rub off on them.

Some Conservatives want to “unite the Right” and bring Reform and the Conservatives together. You can understand why – perhaps one united party, or an alliance of the two, would have a better chance of beating Labour.

If Reform and the Conservatives stand against each other in every seat, they could split the vote and allow Labour to win. But a deal with Reform could be fatal.

Conservatives have always been a broad church. Some Right-wing Tory MPs hate to admit it, but the party always had a place for moderates, liberals, “wets”, the one-nation tendency – call them what you will. And when it has won elections, it’s often been by appealing to centre-ground voters. That’s how David Cameron achieved his majority in 2015.

Boris Johnson was associated with Brexit, often seen as a Right-wing policy. But in other respects, he presented himself as a One Nation, liberal Conservative, and won an overwhelming majority in 2019.

Tories need centre-ground voters, but a deal with Reform would mean they abandoned the Conservatives for good. Kemi herself is a Right-wing politician, but she’s got enough common sense to know an alliance with Nigel Farage could be the end of her party.

And speaking of moderate voters, this is the group that the Conservative Party is now focusing on. While the party still has a lot to say about immigration and Brexit, it is now talking more about the economy, the cost of living and the practical steps it will take to help middle-class voters keep more of their own money.

Kemi’s first two years as leader were about seeing off the threat from Nigel Farage and Reform. She now feels confident enough to think more about how she can actually win a general election and storm into No 10.

What impressed me about Kemi Badenoch’s conference speech was the sense that she really meant what she said. She has convictions. And yes, in that regard, she is a bit like Margaret Thatcher, her political hero.

Some people feel Kemi Badenoch is too combative. She can sound like she’s spoiling for a fight (again, just like Maggie). She can also turn on the charm when she wants to.

But the UK doesn’t need a charming man in No 10. They need someone ready to battle for Britain, and Kemi’s certainly up for the fight.