𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

So net migration to the UK this year is forecast to be “only” 120,000. That’s the number of newcomers arriving minus the number of folk emigrating. What do we make of this? Well, to see some of the headlines, you’d have thought it a triumph. It’s the “lowest level in three decades” we’re told. “Britain’s population boom is ending”, trumpeted one newspaper. “Is Britain heading for net-negative migration?” asked another.

Forgive me if I don’t join in this communal celebration, but a figure of 120,000 is only a triumph if you compare it with the completely ludicrous, utterly unsustainable, run-away immigration over the last few years, which, more than anything, was responsible for the fall of the last Conservative government. And if Andy Burnham thinks this will wash, I suspect he has another thing coming.

We all remember that in 2023 net migration stood at nearly a million. Now, okay, there were extenuating circumstances that year to make the number quite so sensational, but even in 2024 it was still an enormous 331,000, and last year it was 171,000. As for the future, the OBR forecasts that the figures will rise in 2027, and be back as high as 230,000 by 2032.

So, what does all this mean for the UK? Well, let’s take this year’s figure of 120,000. If that were the number every year (and we already know it will be much higher), even accounting for Britain’s higher death rate than birth rate, it means every decade Britain has to build another city the size of Birmingham. It means that by 2050 we’ll need to build at least two Birminghams.

Where will these Birminghams be? Across the Cotswolds? Over the Yorkshire Dales? Plastered over Devon? I’m quite serious. And nobody ever has an answer. Britain is already one of the most overcrowded countries in the world. If you take England by itself – where nearly all the newcomers seem to end up – we have a population density of more than 450 people per kilometre, making us four times as densely populated as France.

So next time you have to wait ages for a GP appointment, or you’re stuck in traffic, or you’re trying to squeeze your family into a tiny house or flat, or you’re forced to squash beside loads of other folk standing on a bus or train, or you have to wait hours at A&E, or you can’t get your child into your local school, you’ll know the reason why.

Britain, especially England, has simply run out of space.

We also all know the real reason for all this immigration: nearly three million working-age Britons are on out-of-work benefits, many because of mental-health issues. This figure has risen massively since Covid, for reasons we can only speculate about. But it means that an incredible (in both senses of the word) 7% of working age adults are too ill to get a job. So, we import loads of foreigners to do the jobs instead, hence the need for more Birminghams to house all this cheap imported labour.

And here’s another challenge. As Conservative Home Affairs spokesperson Chris Philp said this week: “Having highly skilled UK and European workers leaving in droves to flee Labour’s high taxes while low skill migrants come in from undeveloped countries is not good. We need limited high skill migration, zero low skilled migration and we want highly skilled UK and European workers to stay, not flee.”

Of course, Philp is ignoring the inglorious record of his own party in government. But you can’t argue with the point. Net migration of 120,000 may be an improvement on years gone by. But a cause for celebration? I’m afraid not.