𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

This is a make-or-break year for the leaders of Britain’s two traditional parties of power – and one of the most important yet for Nigel Farage. Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch each need to convince their MPs they are the right person to lead them into the next general election.

Mrs Badenoch starts the year with the wind at her back. She rebooted her leadership at the Conservative conference with her pledge to abolish stamp duty and has soundly found her feet at Prime Minister’s Questions as a ferocious critic of Labour. Her scathing response to Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget won respect and, at last, polling puts the Conservatives above Labour.

But it is not enough to be level-pegging with a disastrously unpopular party of Government led by a PM and a Chancellor who have alienated and angered the public. Mrs Badenoch needs to show she can lead the Conservatives into Government in the 2029 election.

Tories don’t want a Neil Kinnock figure who can take them to a magnificent defeat. They need a brilliant communicator and first-rate strategist who can stamp out the threat from Reform and send Labour back into opposition.

The key test comes in May, when voters will elect legions of new councillors and members of the Scottish and Welsh parliaments.

This series of contests may well also determine whether Sir Keir can cling on in Downing Street or whether his party will unite around an alternative leader.

At present, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru are vying to be the biggest party in the Senedd in Cardiff Bay. Labour has won the most seats in every Westminster and devolved election for more than a century. Losing power here would be a humiliation of historic proportions.

To cede control of the Welsh Government to Plaid would be a bitter blow. The nationalist party has long positioned itself as a Left-wing alternative to Labour – it has enjoyed success winning protest votes when Labour is in power in Westminster.

But to lose control of this bastion of Left-of-centre rule to Reform UK would spark terror in Labour circles. If Mr Farage’s party can win in Wales, what chance is there Labour can stop it romping through the Red Wall?

A demolition of the Welsh Tories would also trigger dismay among Conservative MPs.

Mr Farage is under pressure, too. His party shoulders the burden of high expectations. If it fails to demolish Labour and the Tories in council elections and underperforms in Wales and Scotland, then people will ask if a party with just five MPs really stands a credible chance of leading the next Westminster government.

Reform’s many foes would love to say it peaked too early and is built on hype.

The party had high hopes of winning the Labour heartland seat of Caerphilly in the October by-election. Yes, voters deserted Labour – but they swung behind Plaid and stopped Reform taking this iconic Senedd constituency.

Reform’s challenge is to stop this from happening across the country. Citizens are increasingly adept at tactical voting, and if Greens, Liberal Democrats, One Nation Conservatives and Labour supporters unite behind the candidate most likely to beat Reform, then Mr Farage’s dreams of becoming prime minister will face a major obstacle.

The task is to present Reform as a party that is ready for government. That requires unifying its maverick members around credible policies – especially on the economy – stopping unsavoury characters getting chosen as candidates and avoiding scandals in the councils it controls.

Mr Farage’s leadership skills will be tested this year, but it is Sir Keir who is in the fight of his life.

Contrary to what the spin doctors may say, opinion polls do matter this far out from the election. When a party that won a landslide in July 2024 is tied with the Greens on 16%, it is clear the public do not like what they see. Recent Ipsos polling showed seven out of 10 people think the country is going in the wrong direction.

After two major tax-raising Budgets in a row, Labour cannot announce a new round of raids in the autumn and expect to retain even a patina of economic competence.

If unemployment keeps going up and the public do not see improvements in vital areas such as NHS waiting lists and energy bills, then Labour MPs will dread venturing onto the nation’s doorsteps.

If reform of special needs provision outrages parents, then Sir Keir will face an even deeper crisis in Middle Britain. The Conservatives will castigate him for weakness if he fails to get a grip on the country’s spiralling benefits bill, and he cannot neutralise Reform while the small boats crisis continues.

The PM will hope inflation recedes and people feel richer as interest rates are cut. And if England performs spectacularly at the World Cup, it’s possible the nation will have a spring in its step by the time of the autumn conference. Otherwise, he may face the boot.