𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour suffered a local election wipeout as Reform UK stormed to victory in fragmented polling, Sir John Curtice said. The polling expert warned Brexit remains the decisive fault line in British politics as Nigel Farage’s party capitalised on Leave heartlands to top the overnight counts.

Writing for the BBC, Sir John, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, said: “Reform are certainly the winners. The party has won most seats — 30% of those declared so far.” In a BBC sample of more than 500 wards, Reform recorded an average 26% vote share, enough to dominate rivals in a splintered electorate. Support rocketed to 41% in wards where over 60% backed Brexit in 2016, but fell to just 10% where Leave support was under 49%.

Sir John added: “The one place where it has gained control of a council, Newcastle-under-Lyme, voted by nearly two-to-one in favour of Brexit.”

Labour endured devastating losses. The party’s vote share fell 16 points on 2022 levels and 19 points on 2024.

Sir John said: “Both Labour and the Conservatives have suffered a sharp loss of support. The drop has been especially sharp in places where the party was previously strongest and in wards where many people identify as Muslim.”

Labour lost around 250 seats — half of those defended — and control of eight councils. Regarding the Conservatives, Sir John said support “is down on average by 11 points since 2022 and 9 points since 2024. Support fell especially heavily where Reform support was highest, underlining the threat it is posing to Kemi Badenoch’s party.”

The Tories shed a net 137 seats but regained Westminster council, a gain Sir John attributed mainly to Labour’s 17-point collapse there rather than Conservative strength. Their own vote still fell five points. Reform’s targeted gains in Brexit areas have magnified the damage to both main parties.

Referring to Labour, Sir John noted: “This pattern has helped to magnify the party’s seat losses.”

The Greens posted their strongest local election showing yet, averaging 16% — up seven points on 2022 — and securing a net 25 seats. However, Sir John said their success yielded “a number of creditable second and (especially) third places, but relatively few firsts.”

Liberal Democrat advances were limited. They gained Portsmouth and Stockport but lost Hull, with vote share down three points on both 2022 and 2024. Gains came mainly from collapsing Labour and Tory votes rather than broad momentum.

With only one-third of seats declared so far, Sir John said Britain’s politics “has become highly fragmented,” adding: “The outcome of many key battles is as yet unknown. Both the Conservatives and Labour will be hoping that today brings them better news.”

Reform’s performance in Leave strongholds demonstrates the referendum’s enduring power, he said. Sir John noted: “In places that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016… support for Reform has averaged 41%.”

The results leave Sir Keir’s government facing questions over its support in traditional heartlands and among Muslim voters. Senior Labour figures were braced for further pain as counting continued.

Mr Farage’s party has seized the momentum, winning more seats than any other force despite a 26% average vote that would be modest in a general election.