𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

It seems hard to imagine the PM holding on until 2029. Peter Mandelson aside, Sir Keir Starmer is unpopular for a reason. The 2024 landslide was big but the mandate was actually small, and the elecorate finds it hard to know what Sir Keir and his government stand for. Blocking Andy Burnham looked petty. Beyond that, the PM’s own side recoils at what it sees as sell-out policies on the economy and NHS, while the Right bemoans the continuity crisis in the Channel and soak the rich economic policies.

Like the Janus-faced Tories, Starmer is finding that in trying to please everyone he ends up pleasing no one. Does that mean resignation? May’s elections will be brutal. Polling suggests wipeout in Labour heartlands: losses to the Greens in London, Reform in the North, and Reform and Plaid Cymru in Wales.

Notwithstanding the lack of an obvious successor, it’s hard to see the PM carrying on. Still, Labour might. Would even the rebellious backbenchers be willing to throw away their majority in a fit of pique?

Nonetheless, matters may be out of their hands. Economic crises could create a market shock which forces cuts and austerity measures Labour MPs simply can’t stomach, stonking great majority or not.

Moreover, if Labour thinks it could still cobble together a Leftist coalition now but not in a future of even worse economic conditions or higher immigration then it may decide to push the button on an early election.

For the Tories, the much-anticipated renewal seems ever more distant. Kemi Badenoch is not a bad person but she has a thankless task attempting to woo an electorate with recent memory of Conservative failure

The Tories’ and Labour’s best bet is Reform (and the Greens) somehow imploding through infighting, scandal, lack of credibility or fatigue. Yet, despite media onslaughts, Reform has been remarkably resilient.

Moreover, Reform councils have been remarkably efficient and without scandal. The worst which can be said is some have been more cautious than many hoped. But that’s hardly surprising given the hand they were dealt.

The sky will clear after May 7. Sir Keir has a heck of a job staying on but his Labour government may find a way through with a new leader. For Reform, I suggest it has to keep its head down and nose clean: power is still very much within sight.