𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

What do drone attacks in Bahrain have to do with bin collections in Birmingham? The answer is nothing, but this hasn’t prevented Keir Starmer from putting the Iran war at the centre of his local election campaign. Sir Keir is not a complete fool. He knows that even Labour voters are bitterly disappointed in his government. But refusing to get involved in Donald Trump’s war is one of the few popular decisions he has made as Prime Minister.

So he’s decided to play this up for all its worth – and to accuse Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, of supporting the conflict, which is set to have a devastating effect on the UK economy. Launching Labour’s local election campaign in the West Midlands this week, Sir Keir said: “We will protect our forces, our people, our allies in the region. But I made the decision that it is not in our national interest to commit British forces to a war, without a clear legal basis and a clear plan – and I stand by that.

“It’s a question of judgement. Do not forget that the Tories and Reform would have rushed us into this. With no thought of the consequences, including for the cost of living. Utterly reckless.”

There are many problems with this argument. For one thing, Reform and the Conservatives both deny that they ever wanted the UK to become directly involved in bombing Iran. Rather, they accuse the Government of being too slow to protect British military bases and allies in the Gulf region.

Second, and perhaps more significantly, Sir Keir’s decision to keep the UK out of the conflict has made no difference whatsoever to the cost of living.

Iran is doing all it can to cause chaos, because it wants the rest of the world to put pressure on Donald Trump to end the conflict. It’s not holding back. It wouldn’t be doing more if the UK was involved, because it’s doing everything in its power now.

Hence, oil prices are soaring and the Strait of Hormuz, which is vitally important to the global economy, is partly closed. Experts are predicting inflation will stay high as a result, interest rates and mortgage costs may rise and petrol may even need to be rationed.

It’s a grim situation, and nothing Sir Keir has done has made any difference.

Despite all this, the Prime Minister’s insistence that this is “not our war” and the UK is “not going to be dragged into it” may be what voters want to hear. And it’s true that he’s gone further than Mrs Badenoch or Mr Farage in suggesting that he actually opposes the US bombing of Iran, rather than simply thinking we should stay out of it.

How much this will help when voters go to the polls on May 7 remains to be seen.

A study by YouGov found that many praise Sir Keir for “standing up to Donald Trump” but still feel the UK should have been more prepared for the conflict – and fear Sir Keir will change his mind, because he’s carried out so many u-turns on other issues.

In addition, voters aren’t going to forget the Labour’s many disasters on the domestic policy front. Separate YouGov polling found Labour is course to lose control of Wales for the first time since devolved government began in 1999, in what would be a humiliating blow.

Sir Keir’s party could also find itself battered in cities such as Birmingham, as traditional Labour supporters peel off to Reform, the Greens or independents.

The Prime Minister is in survival mode. He fears his enemies in the Labour Party will try to replace him, following May’s local elections. That’s why he’s planning to move quickly with a post-election Cabinet reshuffle, seizing the agenda before his opponents have a chance to act.

And that’s why he’s trying to blame Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage for a war in another part of the world that they have no control over. It’s a desperate move, but it’s the best chance he has.