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Sir Keir Starmer’s failure to stop small boats crossing the Channel and his decision to make Peter Mandelson ambassador to the United States are among the top reasons why Labour faces a historic drubbing in this week’s elections. New polling lays bare the nightmare facing the Labour leader as speculation mounts he will face a leadership challenge if the party suffers a catastrophe in the elections for English councils and the Scottish and Welsh parliaments.

When voters were asked to select Labour’s three worst actions since taking power, “not stopping the boats” was the most common complaint (28%).

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said: “The British people are right. More than 70,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the Channel since Keir Starmer entered office – up 45% since the election – and barely any of them have been removed.”

Alp Mehmet of Migration Watch gave a damning assessment of Labour’s efforts to stop the Channel crossings and criticised the party for ditching the scheme to send migrants to Rwanda, saying: “They abandoned the only deterrence they inherited from the Tories and have turned from one futile gimmick to another. Meanwhile, hundreds of millions have gone to the French who have also failed spectacularly to deliver.”

The next most commonly cited “worst” actions of the Labour Government were appointing Mandelson to the UK’s top diplomatic post (24%); “putting up taxes and freezing income tax thresholds” and “allowing arms sales to Israel” (both 23%); and “scrapping the two-child limit on welfare benefits” (17%).

The polling from Lord Ashcroft, a former deputy Tory chairman, found 49% of voters disliked both Labour and Sir Keir, while 44% disliked both the Conservatives and party leader Kemi Badenoch.

However, Mrs Badenoch enjoys far greater support among Tory voters than Sir Keir does among Britons who have backed his party. In the latest sign of the Prime Minister’s vulnerability, just 24% of people who supported Labour in 2024 said they were satisfied with his leadership, with 36% wanting a change of leader.

In contrast, 60% of people who backed the Conservatives at the last general election were satisfied with how Mrs Badenoch is leading the party, and only 13% wanted her replaced with a new leader.

The elections are expected to lay bare the collapse in Labour’s support since Sir Keir arrived in Downing Street in July 2024.

An analysis by More in Common found Labour “is still losing votes across the Left, Right and centre”. Among people who voted Labour last time, 11% planned to vote for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, with 9% going to the Greens and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats each picking up 6%.

In the local elections, More in Common forecast, Labour could lose 1,500 councillors with the Tories shedding 600. In contrast, Reform could pick up 1,400 with the Greens gaining 600.

The researchers warn Sir Keir is seen as “weak”, reporting that voters think he has been “absent or disengaged”. His successive U-turns have also left many Britons thinking he is “insincere”.

They found that while Mrs Badenoch’s popularity has grown, she is held back by the Tory brand, stating: “Many feel admiration for the leader but feel unable to forgive the party.”

More In Common found that the biggest barrier for Britons voting for Nigel Farage is his connection to President Trump, warning: “Many worry that Reform will bring the same chaos and unpredictability.”

Crucially, there is evidence that Reform voters in England are the most motivated to vote. Sixty-four percent described the contests as “very important”, compared with just 53% of all likely English voters.

The research shows Labour is facing its “worst ever” result in the Scottish Parliament election, and in Wales Plaid Cymru and Reform are tipped to finish with equal numbers of Senedd members, with Labour pushed from the top position for the first time.