𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

A new chapter of woe is opening up for Sir Keir Starmer with the Conservatives overtaking Labour in the polls and voters giving a devastating verdict on his record on bringing down the cost of living.

The PM’s party has been behind Reform UK in Politico’s poll of polls since April last year but despondent MPs could cling to a morsel of comfort that at least they were doing better than their traditional foes, the Tories. They could then pin their hopes on an implosion of support for Nigel Farage’s party.

But something has shifted in the country, with polls now showing the Conservatives have opened up a lead over Labour.

It used to be the case that Kemi Badenoch would land punches on the Government but not see a bounce in support. It is early days but she may have hauled the Tories out of the electoral quicksand in which they were trapped.

The latest More In Common put the Tories on 23%, four points ahead of Labour. Reform is still far ahead of both parties on 31% but Conservative strategists will strive to whittle that away in the years leading up to the next general election.

For Sir Keir, there are deep reasons to worry. The Prime Minister has put the cost of living at the heart of his new year reboot; he right to recognise the horror at bills households have to pay but he is campaigning in an area of weakness.

Pollsters YouGov found the cost of living topped the list (54%) when voters were asked to name three of the most important issues facing the country. They put making ends meet ahead of immigration and asylum (49%), health and the NHS (43%) and the economy (33%).

The bad news for the Prime Minister is that blame for the high cost of living is laid at his feet.

Just 8% of respondents think he has handled the issue well. A majority (65%) said the Government’s failure to take strong leadership was a reason behind the cost hikes, with just (51%) naming Brexit.

This is coupled with widespread pessimism among voters about their own financial situation. Just 12% expect it to improve this year.

A Government is in trouble when people feel badly off and see scant reason to think things will get better. Reform UK has excelled at presenting Mr Farage as an alternative prime minister, and Mrs Badenoch’s ambition for this year is to restore the trust of the electorate.

Her party’s poll rating has edged up as she has unveiled bold policies, such as scrapping stamp duty and pledging to pull out of the European Convention of Human Rights. Many more policies will be announced as the next election nears, and the party will hope concrete promises on subjects close to voters’ hearts will persuade Britons to give the Tories another chance.

Both Sir Keir and Mrs Badenoch face a difficult week when much of the country goes to the polls for the local and Scottish and Welsh parliament elections in May. Each party could suffer a disaster in the Welsh Senedd, where Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are competing to emerge as the biggest party.

Nevertheless, there is a new optimism in Conservative ranks – the hope that Mrs Badenoch is hitting her stride as Sir Keir is losing his grip.

The Tories have thrived in their various forms for generations because of their ruthless desire to win and proven ability to tap into the aspirations of ordinary Britons. Right now, people want a Government that will make it less of a struggle to stop a household going broke.

If Mrs Badenoch convinces Britons she can ease their cost of living pain then today’s narrow lead over Labour could become a chasm – and the scene will be set for a ferocious and historic competition with Mr Farage for the confidence of the nation.