𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Kemi Badenoch has scored a major breakthrough, with Britons now seeing her and the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour for the first time since the General Election. Thirty-five percent of Britons now say the Tories are the main opposition – more than the 32% who believe Nigel Farage’s Reform UK plays this role. Reform had led by 28 points as recently as May.

However, the Conservative leader faces an epic challenge if she is going to replace Andy Burnham as Prime Minister. The Ipsos polling found voters think it “more likely than unlikely” that Mr Burnham will win the next election – 43% compared with 33%. People who voted Labour in 2024 now see Mrs Badenoch’s party as the main opposition (42%) rather than Reform UK (29%).

Four in 10 Britons think the outcome of the next election – which must come no later than August 2029 – will be either a Labour majority (19%) or a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party (21%). Only one in three people thought these were the most likely outcomes in September.

Nearly eight out of 10 voters (79%) say it is unlikely that Green Party leader Zack Polanski will ever be prime minister. Almost the same share (78%) say the same about Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey.

The Conservative and Reform UK leaders also face a challenge in persuading the public they are strong contenders to succeed Mr Burnham. Only 33% think it is likely that Mr Farage will be PM, with Mrs Badenoch a point behind on 32%. This contrasts with the polling in May, when half of respondents thought it likely Mr Farage would lead the country.

A Conservative source said: “Kemi Badenoch and her team are putting in the hard work and taking the fight to this Labour Government, unlike Reform who are letting them off the hook. The Conservatives are different from the party that lost the last election, and different from Reform. We are the only party that can unite the country behind a common-sense plan to get Britain working again.”

Keiran Pedley, UK director of politics at Ipsos, said: “These findings reflect a political environment that continues to be in flux following Andy Burnham’s arrival as Prime Minister and recent struggles for Reform UK. The Burnham bounce looks real – with the public more likely to see Labour as being at least the largest party after the next general election compared to a month ago.

“Meanwhile, in the battle for hearts and minds on the Right, the Conservatives continue to make progress. Time will tell if this leads to a decisive shift in voter preferences in their direction or if this is merely a low ebb for Reform UK that they recover from.”