𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Kemi Badenoch has “broken through” with voters who love her tough-talking style – but the Conservative Party itself is still widely loathed. It means she faces a huge conundrum as she prepares to deliver her big conference speech in Birmingham. How does she translate her personal popularity into support for a Conservative Party which is still considered toxic by voters who remember the splits and disasters in the run-up to the 2024 general election?

But she has an answer. Kemi is planning to take a huge gamble – and it’s one that could either destroy the Conservative Party or give it a fighting chance of winning a general election. She’s going to take a break from her relentless war with fellow right-winger Nigel Farage, and focus at least some of her attention on winning over centrist, moderate and “liberal” voters instead.

The huge challenges facing the Conservative Party are revealed in polling that found Kemi is one of the most popular party leaders – but of all those who believe Kemi Badenoch is doing a good job, only a third (34 per cent) say they would vote Conservative.

The survey by More in Common, which also ran a series of focus groups, found voters describe Kemi as “intelligent”, “professional” and “principled”.

The trouble is that many Kemi fans wish she was leading a different party. But there is a ray of hope. Kemi’s attempt to portray her party as “under new leadership” is starting to work.

The proportion saying that the Conservatives feel “genuinely different” from when Rishi Sunak was leader has risen from 25 per cent last year to 38 per cent now. And the Tories are making progress in the battle against Reform.

Since May of this year, the share who think the Conservatives are the main party of the right has risen from 17 per cent to 25 per cent. Kemi now faces a difficult choice. The fight against Reform is a battle for survival. If Reform become accepted as the dominant party on the right, the Tories are finished. What would be the point of them?

But should she now attempt to appeal a little more to moderates and centrists?

The truth is that she needs centre-ground voters if she is ever to have a chance of winning power. There are plenty of people who voted Tory in the past who switched to the Lib Dems in 2024, or stayed at home, or even voted Labour.

Right-wing Conservative MPs are loathe to admit this. For many of them, “Liberal Democrat” is the ultimate insult (yes, even worse than “socialist”).

But the reality is that Kemi needs the votes of moderate, centrist voters to get into Number 10.

And she’s chosen to take a gamble. Rather than just fighting Reform, the Conservative Party is now turning its attention to moderates.

Conservative headquarters seems to be working on a plan to win over middle-class Labour and Lib Dem voters.

The party also wants to win over Reform voters, of course. But it’s set its sights higher than just beating Farage.

Kemi is thinking about more than saving her party from annihilation. She’s spotted an opportunity to pull off what looked impossible in 2024 and take her party straight back into Government.