𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Sir Keir Starmer is a prime minister in peril, as polling has remained stubbornly gloomy reading for him and his allies following Labour’s landslide victory at last year’s General Election. The beginning of this coming year will be filled with speculation as to if, when and how he could be ousted. In fact, it has already begun in earnest.

YouGov put Labour on 19% as of December 22, neck and neck with the Conservatives. Reform UK was on 26%. Sir Keir has tried both emulating some of Nigel Farage’s stances – you’ll recall his “island of strangers” speech, after which the PM was accused of an Enoch Powell tribute act – and sought to appease his Left-wing backbenchers with the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap and planned £5billion cuts to welfare.

Wes Streeting, one of Sir Keir’s potential challengers, has said this government is too technocratic. Angela Rayner is also mooted as a challenger, and there are whispers about Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, and Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary.

It has been suggested that if Labour’s fortunes do not improve in 2026, “unprecedented measures” could be taken by MPs.

One of these, The Spectator suggests, would be a secret ballot to select Sir Keir’s successor.

The method of removing a Conservative Party leader is well-known after recent years of turmoil. Letters of no confidence are submitted to the 1922 Committee of the party’s backbench MPs, and if a threshold is met, a leadership ballot takes place.

The current occupant of No 10 would need to be presented with a challenger with the support of at least 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) to trigger a full leadership contest.

The written nominations would be submitted to the general secretary of the party.

A “one member, one vote” system is used, ensuring equal weight is given to the votes of MPs, Labour members and members of affiliated organisations, like trade unions.

In 2016, then-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was challenged by Owen Smith.

Mr Corbyn secured 61.8% of the vote to Smith’s 38.2%.

The Islington North MP won the support of members (59%), registered supporters (70%) and trade union affiliates (60%).