𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Last week’s local elections were a game-changer and then some. While the scale of Reform’s success had to some extent been priced in, the victory for Nigel Farage’s party – and the scale of loss for Labour – is still a game-changer. And don’t believe any garbage about a Tory bounce back. These results were devastating for Kemi Badenoch. The Conservatives lost the Boris Johnson Brexit landslide areas, which evidences the scale of Tory-to-Reform switching. But Reform – now in control of more councils and with more seats than ever – must ready itself for the greatest of scrutiny.

That means even better vetting as well as prioritising stable professional candidates. Reform must also be mindful of an ongoing threat on the further Right. Rupert Lowe’s Restore robbed Reform of overall control in Norfolk. While that threat could diminish at a general election – especially when voters realise the danger of splitting the Right-wing vote – it cannot be easily dismissed.

Meanwhile on Sky News’s projections – if these results were replicated at a general election – Reform would still fall short of an overall majority and would need Tory seats to form a working coalition.

To borrow the title of a recent Netflix show, nobody wants this. Farage will therefore need – between now and election day – to convince enough floating Tory voters of Reform’s economic competence and professionalism.

What about Labour? In a head-to-head hypothetical from December, Andy Burnham was preferred over Nigel Farage. Now I’d wager Burnham’s star would fall if he ever became PM, and voters would make a decision based on party policies as much as personality, but Sir Keir Starmer as PM remains an asset for Reform. A new Labour leader could yet pose a problem.

That said, a new left-leaning Labour leader could easily spook the markets enough to force austerity measures and catalyse an early election, one Reform would likely trounce Labour in.

These local elections were a calamity for the old established parties. With victories for the Greens, and a decent result for the Lib Dems, UK politics is now becoming a five-horse race. Given Reform’s sensational results in Scotland and Wales, Farage’s party is also becoming the only major party of the Union.

Still, the scrutiny will now kick up a gear, and while this battle was won the war remains far from over. What happens next to Sir Keir will be of particular importance. Nonetheless UK politics is Reform’s world now. Farage has the Red Wall, the East Coast and more. The turquoise tidal wave has truly swept in.