𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Working people are paying more income tax and national insurance every year. Our armed forces desperately need more money, but nobody has so far explained where it will come from. And funding for services such as schools and the police is set to be cut by a total of £9 billion.

The experts have examined John Healey’s Budget in detail, and what they’ve uncovered makes for grim reading.

It’s no wonder the Government is desperate to cut the soaring cost of benefits – which is due to reach a remarkable £431 billion by 2031-32 unless action is taken.

But it’s become clear this week that Labour is in a state of chaos when it comes to welfare.

Chancellor John Healey told the BBC he hoped to get the benefits bill down before the next election. Then he turned around and appeared to say that no, that wouldn’t be possible.

But Defence Secretary Wes Streeting then told us that this was wrong, and the cost of benefits could fall after all.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s official spokesman, meanwhile, said we’d have to wait for a policy paper to be published some time in 2027, before learning what the Government planned.

One hand doesn’t know what the other is doing. But there are two reasons for this chaos.

The first is that Mr Burnham is terrified of provoking Labour MPs who oppose any meaningful cuts to benefits for people who don’t work.

When Keir Starmer’s government tried it in 2025, a rebellion by backbench Labour MPs forced a huge u-turn – and contributed to the sense that Sir Keir wasn’t capable of running the country.

That £431 billion figure I mentioned above includes spending on pensioners. But it’s notable that Mr Burnham had no hesitation in announcing, at his party conference, that he was ending the state pension triple lock in its present form, in order to save money.

Cuts to benefits for working age people, however, have to be hidden behind a series of reviews and consultations, to make it harder to pin the blame on the Prime Minister.

The other factor causing chaos is intense speculation over when a general election is coming.

Mr Burnham is committed to number of key policies he can only carry out after an election. They include watering down the triple lock, a new relationship with the EU, expensive changes to social care and changing the voting system. At the moment he’s bound by Labour’s 2024 election manifesto, which prevents him pressing ahead with many of his big ideas.

At the same time, he wants to stamp down on election speculation – until the day comes when he officially announces its happening.

This is why Number 10 is thrown into a panic by questions about whether the benefits bill will fall before the next election. They want to avoid talking about polling day.

It may well be that despite Mr Burnham’s constant insistence to the contrary, we have a general election in 2027 in which the prime minister asks the nation to give him a mandate for a range of radical policies such as a national care service (funded by a new tax), a referendum on proportional representation, re-joining the EU in all but name, ending the triple lock, and cuts to working-age benefits.

But clearly he doesn’t want to reveal his hand just yet, so we get dither and confusion instead.