𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

I’m fascinated by how the selection committee will dissect the imbalance between NET ranking and Quad 1/2 victories for the bubble teams. If the committee skews toward NET, then SMU (37), Auburn (38), Santa Clara (40) and Indiana (41) probably sneak in, while Miami of Ohio (64) has no chance.

If the committee leans into Quad 1/2 wins, then UCF (11), Oklahoma (10) and New Mexico (10) are near the top, but their NET rankings are 51, 48 and 46, respectively. New Mexico also has two Quad 3/4 losses. On the flip side, Auburn has only seven Quad 1/2 wins with 15 losses, and Indiana is 6-14 in that category. SMU seems to have the best overall resume among the teams truly on the bubble with a 20-13 overall mark, including a 9-13 record against Quad 1/2 competition and no bad losses.

The mid-major squads will have to rely on the overall body of work. Miami of Ohio finished 28-1 with its only loss coming in the MAC tournament. The RedHawks don’t have enough metrics to make it without the eye test. Santa Clara (25-8) reached the West Coast Conference finals and will the committee see the semifinal win against St. Mary’s as a deciding factor. If VCU loses in the Atlantic-10 finals, will its 44 NET, 26-8 overall mark (with the loss) and six Quad 1/2 wins be enough?