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A military expert has named the three countries they think Russia is most likely to invade as tensions in eastern Europe intensify. With NATO make a big conscription push to bolster its eastern flank and the Labour government saying that Russia poses an “enduring and significant threat” there are concerns the European continent could be on the brink of war again.

Last week, as speculation grew, we spoke to military author and historian David Swift about which countries was most likely to invade as NATO jets were scrambled in the likes of Poland and Romania amid Russian strikes landing perilously close the former’s border with Ukraine.

Although eight countries sit around Russia’s western region, Mr Swift said three of them were the most likely places for military action. He said: “Definitely Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are the most vulnerable because of geography and their small size and populations.

“Lithuania has the Russian exclave of Kalinnagrad to its west and Belarus to its East so is particularly vulnerable to some kind of deniable action by paramilitaries or forces not overtly wearing Russian uniforms, as with the ‘Little Green Men’ who invaded the Donbas in 2014.”

Whilst Lithuania and Poland are reportedly planning cross-border evacuation plans for the Baltic States, Mr Swift ruled out the latter being targeted as it “is much stronger and I imagine Putin wouldn’t want to test it yet”.

As well as commenting on which eastern European countries could be invaded, Mr Swift also suggested which groups in Britain could be encouraged to sign up for something like a war register.

Although the focus in recent days has been on the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool, it was at the Liberal Democrats’ event in Brighton last week that a war register scheme was suggested. A war register, as opposed to conscription, is a voluntary scheme and database where people express their willingness to support their country during an attack.

On who would be most likely to sign up for such a scheme, Mr Swift said: “If there was something explicit and obvious, like ground troops or airstrikes against a NATO country, then we would see a serious response and new sense of urgency from the British government, and something like the war register, which I think a lot of people would sign up for.

“I think it could be a useful way of mobilising people for non-military tasks, although presumably it would largely recruit from more middle class people, as with those offering refuge to Ukrainians, etc. In fact it’s no coincidence the Lib Dems are pushing this.”

Mr Swift has also, however, commented on who would and wouldn’t be the most likely to get conscripted in the event it was reintroduced. He said: “Since there is such an urgent need to rebuild Britain’s defence industries and industrial capacity, I would expect that people in these important occupations would be exempt.

“Or even that people could be ‘conscripted’ into working in these industries. Military conscription would target unemployed graduates – this would be very popular with lots of people.”