𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Nigel Farage has won the battle of Clacton and seen off the threat from Count Binface. In theory, he should now be able to focus on winning the war – which in his case is the campaign to become Prime Minister after the next general election. But he faces two massive hurdles. The first is that the row over his finances is not over, with the Parliamentary Commissioner re-opening an inquiry. That means it’s possible, although by no means certain, that there could be another Clacton by-election before long.

The second problem, however, is even bigger. Because Mr Farage has always believed that his path to Number 10 involves replacing the Conservatives as leading right-wing party in the UK, and then taking on Labour at a general election. He hoped that elections in May this year, for English councils and the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments, would demonstrate that the Conservatives are no longer a genuine national party and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch was not a serious contender for Prime Minister.

They would prove, Mr Farage thought, that the Tories had support in only a few, isolated strongholds. And any voter who wanted to replace Labour with a government that was centre-right or conservative – with a small c – would then decide it was only sensible to back Reform.

But it hasn’t happened. It’s true that the Conservatives suffered a disastrous rout in those local elections, coming fourth in terms of seats won, behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats, while Reform were very clearly in first place.

However, the Tories refuse to die. And they may even be catching up with Reform.

A YouGov poll last week found 21% of voters said they would back the Tories, with 22% backing Reform.

And a poll by Lord Ashcroft, albeit using an unusual methodology, actually found 23% of voters planned to back the Conservatives in a general election, with just 18% supporting Reform.

There have been other surveys showing Nigel Farage’s party remain well ahead of the Conservatives, led by Kemi Badenoch.

But the long period when Reform were firmly and clearly in the lead appears to be at an end.

Polling expert Peter Kellner said last week: “Farage should be concerned that his party’s support is too soft for comfort. I doubt it is yet in third place; but it’s heading that way.”

So Nigel’s task now, if he hopes to be PM one day, is to finish off the Tories once and for all.

In the UK voting system, there’s only room for two serious contenders to be Prime Minister in a general election. One of them, unless he gets hit by a bus, will by Andy Burnham, the sitting Labour Prime Minister.

The other? It could very well be Kemi Badenoch, unless Nigel Farage finds a way to kill off her chances for good.