𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Reform used to be on top of the world. Every opinion poll put them in the lead, as furious voters discovered that Keir Starmer’s Labour administration was no better than the dysfunctional Conservative government they’d just got rid of. Nigel Farage was on course to become Prime Minister, and began putting together a shadow cabinet to help him run the country.

It didn’t last. Today, the outcome of the next general election appears less certain. And Reform insiders are even being to think the unthinkable – that Nigel Farage could call it a day and quit before polling day comes. The mood at the party’s conference in Birmingham last week was upbeat. You might even say jolly.

Activists were unperturbed by a Channel 4 report claiming Reform took funding from a US firm, something that isn’t just against the rules but could actually be a criminal offence.

Party loyalists simply viewed it as further evidence that the establishment was out to get Nigel.

It was the same story when I visited Clacton, during the recent by-election campaign, Then, the focus was on a different story, involving a £5 million gift received by Mr Farage. But the verdict of most voters I spoke to was the same – that Nigel was the victim of a stitch up.

Party insiders, however, fear stories about Reform’s financial affairs have an impact. “We keep on slipping on banana peels,” said one. The fear is that voters will come to associate the party not so much with avarice or corruption, but with incompetence and chaos.

And those having doubts include Nigel Farage himself

His extraordinary charisma and ability to communicate has made Reform what it is today. After all, before Nigel’s return in 2024, the party was operating under the leadership of Richard Tice – an impressive figure in many ways – and barely made a dent.

But Mr Farage isn’t enjoying himself. In an interview last week he complained of “a wilful attempt, and it’s gone on now for months, to say that everything to do with Reform, that every individual involved with Reform is somehow a crook.”

The horrific murder of Ann Widdecombe was a stark reminder that the threats to his own safety are very real. Mr Farage said: “I don’t know of any other MP that’s faced the threats that I’ve faced.”

And he says his family have been targeted.

There are now questions about whether Nigel Farage will stay the course – especially if election victory looks uncertain. He may hoped to be Prime Minister, but he has no great desire to be leader of the opposition.

One friend said the Reform UK leader had spent the past few weeks contemplating his future.

He is “seething” about the impact on his family. Two relatives have had their bank accounts frozen because of their association with him. Others faced security threats.

A source close to Mr Farage denied he had considered “walking away”. But they said: “Like anyone, he does sometimes take stock of his life.

“You cannot overstate how upsetting the murder of Ann Widdecombe has been and there are other security incidents that are not in the public domain which are very serious.

“The impact on his family is also very real and has gotten much worse and that is difficult to deal with. But he is not walking away.’”

Without Nigel, Reform could soon retreat back to the fringes of British politics.

Another huge problem for Mr Farage’s team is that the Conservative Party refuses to die.

Reform once hoped to replace the Tories as the undisputed party of the right. That hasn’t happened.

Mr Farage now says that the Conservative Party has been around for almost 200 years and won’t vanish overnight. And there is a swathe of voters who switch, every so often, between the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but will never back Reform.

It means that the Right is likely to go into the next general election divided, while the Left, split until recently between Labour and the Greens, appears to be coalescing around Labour leader Andy Burnham.

Reform MP Sarah Pochin spoke candidly about the problem at a conference event, telling activists: “We cannot let Right-wing voters down by squabbles … there needs to be some coming together on the Right.”

However, officially at least, the leadership of both Reform and the Tories are firmly opposed to any type of deal. And there is genuine bad blood between them, after Mr Farage welcomed a string of Tory defectors

Put it all together and the future for Reform is uncertain. It’s far too soon to write the obituary. But the odds on Reform ever winning power at a national level are lengthening.