𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch face a “make-or-break” moment in the battle for the loyalty of Right-wing voters, which could shape the future of Britain – and major new research shows where each is winning. The new analysis from More in Common reveals the Conservatives are now a single percentage point ahead of Reform UK – 24% to 23% – as each party pursues the goal of ousting Andy Burnham’s Labour at the next election.

Conservatives have stronger support among women, graduates and the over-75s. But Reform is doing better with men, non-graduates and Generation X – people born between 1965 and 1980. Tories will be heartened that 40% of Reform voters say they would back the Conservatives in a contest seen as a straight Labour-Conservative fight. This compares with just one in four Tories who would swing behind Mr Farage’s party in a Labour-Reform battle – and 19% of Conservatives would vote Labour.

Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said: “Reform and the Conservatives are now locked in a tight, high-stakes duel to position themselves as the main opposition to Labour.”

He said that a “small 2% swing from Reform to the Conservatives” would result in the Tories winning 202 seats, leaving them the “clear opposition to Labour”. But a 2% swing from Conservative to Reform would lead to Mr Farage’s party winning 213 constituencies.

Mr Tryl said support for Reform was down nine points from its peak last autumn and this was “driven by the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch winning back many of their former voters”. He added that the rise of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain has “put them in a pincer movement”.

“The next few months could be a make-or-break moment for the battle for the Right,” he said. “The Right could begin to unite more strongly behind one party seen as best placed to beat Andy Burnham, or the divisions between Conservatives and Reform could deepen and become a key feature of the next election.”

More in Common uncovered a “stark gender divide”, with Mrs Badenoch’s party leading among women, 24% to 19%. Among those who voted Reform in the 2024 election, 74% still back the party but 11% now support Restore. The share of 2024 Conservative voters now backing Reform has fallen from 28% to 17%.

The researchers found “age is one of the biggest dividing lines on the right”. While Reform is strongest among people in their 50s and 60s, the “Conservatives do best with the over-75s”.

Education is also a “crucial dividing line”, with the Conservatives the “clear choice on the Right for graduates” and “Reform in fourth place among this group”. Reform remains the “largest party among non-graduates”, but it has “fallen eight points with this group since May, driven by Restore”.

More in Common suggests the Right “may be nearing a tipping point” because “Reform voters are more willing to contemplate voting Conservative to block Labour than the other way round”. But it warns the “main hurdle” the Conservatives face is a “sense that they do not understand ordinary people or represent their values”.

For Reform, “a lack of trust, especially in Nigel Farage himself, has become a larger barrier”.

Among Reform voters considering voting Tory, they are held back by the Conservatives’ record on immigration (45%) and Brexit (26%), as well as the suspicion that the party cannot win where they live (21%).

Conservative voters thinking of voting Reform are held back by the party’s lack of experience in government (25%), a worry that its economic plans are not credible (19%), and Mr Farage’s support for President Trump (16%).

A Conservative source said: “It is becoming increasingly clear that the choice at the next election will be between Conservative plans to get Britain working again and a Labour Party that keeps putting up taxes, refuses to cut welfare and will not fund our defence.”

Reform UK declined to comment.