𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Is the Green Party about to supplant Reform UK? Unlikely. But it’s not only Labour who should be worried about the Greens running Reform a very close second (just two points) in the latest YouGov poll. True, this is likely a poll bounce from the Gorton and Denton by-election. Still, Reform needs to be careful that another party doesn’t suddenly become the go-to opposition against the Tory-Labour uniparty, albeit on the Left.

Yes, Reform can rightly point to postal and family voting issues, as well as bloc voting by British South Asians with the Greens pandering to ethno-religious sectarianism, as reasons for Hannah Spencer’s victory. But it’s also true that the Greens ran a positive campaign with a good story to tell. Nigel Farage is – like Zack Polanski – best when he and his party play the happy warrior talking of sunlit uplands.

Folks in hard-done-by post-industrial Britain don’t need reminding their lives are crap (take it from a Lutonian). Instead, they want to know how things can be made infinitely better.

While Reform still tops the polls, other data suggests Farage’s party is also the UK’s most disliked and extremely susceptible to tactical voting.

Bringing in ex-Tories may be a masterstroke in broadening Reform’s appeal, especially among voters still clinging to Kemi’s Conservatives.

As yet however, this has not translated to an upswing in the opinion polls (though nor has it led to a downswing either).

The Green surge is bad news for Sir Keir Starmer and may yet catalyse both his regicide at the hands of disgruntled backbenchers and perhaps even an early election, assuming Labour HQ thinks this can minimise the party’s electoral losses.

But Reform needs to be careful. Happy warriors win! Farage and his swagger testify to this. He didn’t win Brexit through negativity. In fact the Remain side lost because it had nothing positive to say about staying in.

Two points ahead of the Greens is not comfort zone territory for Reform. Polanski and his pals may have crazy ideas, but they can also claim the mantle of anti-establishment opposition to failed orthodoxy.

Reform remains out in front. But the positivity of Brand Farage is what will keep them there.