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Prisons will run out of capacity by November if Andy Burnham scraps the early release scheme, Sir David Gauke, the former Tory justice secretary who drew it up, has warned. He said reaching capacity in English and Welsh prisons “leaves the system vulnerable”.

Mr Burnham temporarily halted the scheme after the potential early release of two of PC Andrew Harper’s killers led to national outrage. Albert Bower and Jessie Cole were jailed for manslaughter after the PC was dragged more than a mile on country roads after getting cuaght in a strap on a vehicle. The new PM said no prisoners would be freed under the scheme until the government conducted a review and had “done everything we can to minimise risk to the public”.

Criminals convicted of less serious offences could be freed just a third of the way through.

Sir David, who led the independent review into sentencing, said prisons operating at capacity would be detrimental to rehabilitation, while suggesting there might be scope for the government to introduce “narrowly-focused” exemptions to release. He admitted there was “no easy way to draw a line”, reports The Telegraph.

In a series of posts on X, he wrote: “The sentencing reforms were driven by necessity. Sentences increased, the release points increased, but capacity did not increase to reflect that.

“This resulted in a capacity crisis in 2024, with a short-term emergency release scheme implemented. We should want to avoid that.

“There is more space in our prisons today, but we should not aim to have prisons at capacity. We might have spaces – but in the wrong places or the wrong type of prison.

“Running at capacity makes it hard to deliver rehabilitation, and leaves the system vulnerable if there is a spike in criminality (for example riots), or if prison capacity is reduced suddenly.

“The current spare capacity won’t last long. Without the early release scheme, we are on course to run out of capacity in November, requiring emergency measures.”

Alex Norris, the Justice Secretary, said the government would decide who might leave and when. Victims could also have a say over security measures.

“We’ve heard very strongly from victims and victims’ advocates about their desire for that greater say in it, and that’s part of this review to make sure that they get that,” he said.

Downing Street and the Ministry of Justice said the implementation of the release scheme would depend on the outcome of the review.