𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

The Scottish National Party is now a brake on independence, as the scale of the betrayal of supporters is exposed. SNP First Minister John Swinney faces the challenge of persuading Scots who cherish the dream of independence to campaign and stump up cash, in the wake of the Peter Murrell embezzlement scandal.

Citizens battered by the cost of living crisis watched in disgust as the details of Nicola Sturgeon’s estranged husband’s spending spree were revealed. The ex-chief executive spent more than £400,300 on items including games consoles, Le Creuset dishes, a home weather station, lawn seed and – most famously – a luxury motorhome.

The spectacle of Murrell being led away in handcuffs to begin his prison sentence is far from the end of this crisis. For decades, the SNP has been the engine of the independence movement but now its reputation for discipline, good governance, integrity and transparency is wrecked.

SNP stalwarts may complain that their party is held to a higher standard than others. But it has the task of showing the world what an independent Scotland would be like.

The Scottish Government is already entrusted with a raft of powers, and the challenge for the SNP is convincing voters to move from the era of devolution to a new chapter as an independent nation state. It is hard to persuade voters to take this leap of faith when the stench of corruption now hangs over the party that runs the government.

In May, polling by Ipsos showed that a narrow majority of voters were opposed to independence (52% v. 48%). The SNP has led the Scottish Parliament since 2007 but it has failed to convince a thumping majority of the electorate of the case for breaking away from the UK.

The loss of the Westminster constituency of Aberdeen South last week to the Tories is an SOS message by voters, who are dismayed at the collapse of the North Sea energy sector on Labour and the SNP’s watch.

First Minister Mr Swinney will hope he can avoid the fate of Sir Keir Starmer. Yes, the SNP succeeded in returning to Holyrood as the biggest party in May, but it did so with just 38% of the constituency vote. It is not so much that Scottish voters are excited by the SNP’s offering, but that there is no alternative party of government the nation can unite around.

As the years roll by towards the next Scottish Parliament election, the danger is that extreme familiarity will breed contempt.

Mr Swinney can expect bitter conflict within the party if independence – a goal which once looked in touching distance – grows less likely on its watch. Generations of campaigners did not trudge the streets delivering leaflets just so a new class of politicos could pocket generous salaries and claim expenses in Edinburgh; they want independence in their lifetime. The high command of the party can expect fury if they are blamed for sabotaging the party’s ultimate mission.

The world has changed radically since Scots voted by 55% v. 44% to reject independence in the 2014 referendum. The idea of going it alone will looks even more dangerous to many voters.

Russia had launched its first invasion of Ukraine before that vote was taken, but Europe is now on a war-footing.

Scotland plays an indispensable role in the defence of the UK. and Britain’s nuclear submarines are based at Faslane. Unionists will warn there will be rejoicing in the Kremlin if the UK fractures – especially if London and Edinburgh end up haggling over the division of military assets.

Scots also appreciate just how difficult it would be to rejoin the European Union and negotiate an open border with the rest of the UK. Brilliant minds stayed up late into the night devising a fix to avoid customs posts between Northern Ireland and the Republic, and nobody would pretend the present arrangements represent perfection. Scottish businesses would be dismayed at the prospect of obstacles to trade with England in this era of non-growth.

Everyone who is still living with the consequences of the turmoil which followed Liz Truss’s mini-Budget will steer clear of any constitutional change, which could trigger financial chaos. Falling North Sea revenues meant Scotland ran a deficit of £26.2billion in 2024-25 – 11.6% of GDP, compared with a UK figure of 5.1%.

Devolution has not unlocked a utopia in Scotland. Scots know that an independent Scotland would not be a paradise; the question is whether the potential benefits are great enough to justify the risk.

There is no automatic link between independence and more virtuous government. The Murrell scandal shows that a party committed to independence is not immune to the temptations which come with power.

The dream of an independent Scotland was once enough to unite Leftish progressives such as Nicola Sturgeon and social conservatives like Kate Forbes in a single party. But people who still believe independence would unlock a fairer, kinder, healthier, richer and happier nation will increasingly ask whether they would be better off investing their time, money and hope in an institution other than the SNP.