Rachel Reeves just blew up UK economy far more than anyone realised | Personal Finance | Finance


That black hole referred to unfunded government spending commitments. As chancellor, Reeves used it to justify a brutal ยฃ40billion tax raid in her maiden Budget, then another ยฃ30billion in the next. The result? Consumers stopped spending, businesses stopped investing and sentiment collapsed as everybody waited for the worst. Reeves promised us growth but killed it stone dead. Itโ€™s what Labour chancellors do. They tax and spend until thereโ€™s no money left.

Reeves also banged on about her so-called iron-clad fiscal rules but they’ve made no difference. Parliament is packed with more than 400 Labour MPs who only want to talk about squeezing taxpayers harder to spend more on benefits and the public sector. Ultimately, Reeves knuckled down and did their bidding. The result? Exactly what you’d expect. We’re running a massive deficit and borrowing a jaw-dropping ยฃ150billion a year to balance the books.

The Office for Budget Responsibility had no idea of the scale of the crisis Reeves was about to unleash. In March 2023, more than a year before Labour took office, it forecast borrowing of roughly ยฃ85billion for 2024/25. Thanks to Reeves, the actual figure exploded to ยฃ151billion. Thatโ€™s an extra ยฃ66billion above the forecast amount, in a single year.

In March 2024, again, before Reeves took charge, the OBR innocently forecast borrowing of ยฃ87billion for 2025/26. In practice, Reeves borrowed ยฃ152billion. Thatโ€™s ยฃ65billion more than the OBR thought likely (or humanly possible). In just two years, Reeves borrowed roughly ยฃ131billion more than official forecasts expected. It adds up to ยฃ303billion in total, all bunged on the national debt. These are astonishing sums. In my expert opinion, she’s gone loopy.

I donโ€™t blame the OBR. It made those projections in good faith before any of us understood the sheer scale of the fiscal wrecking ball Reeves was about to swing. Voters didnโ€™t see it coming either. If they had, Labour would never have got anywhere near office. And that isnโ€™t even the worst part.

All those extra taxes have done nothing to close the deficit. Instead, they’ve blown it wide open. Labour will tax all it can but never grasps that actions have consequences in the real economy. Investment falls. Growth weakens. Jobs disappear. Wealthy taxpayers flee. Deficits rise. National debt climbs. Bond yields surge and borrowing costs spiral.

Yet Reeves laughably insists her “plan is working” and she’s “restored stability”. There’s no plan, and no stability. How can she keep a straight face while feeding us these whoppers?

Incredibly, she’s set to borrow another ยฃ149billion this year. Yet Labour MPs are still trying to bring in Andy Burnham to spend even more. The Treasury constantly blames the Iran war but governments always face external shocks. The Conservatives had to cope with Covid and the Ukraine energy crisis. I don’t recall Reeves cutting them any slack.

She’s lost all control. Regardless of who replaces her as Labour chancellor, our economic death spiral will accelerate. Her black hole will only get bigger, and soon we’ll all be sucked into it.

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