𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

In selecting “plucky plumber” Robert Kenyon to fight “anywhere Andy” Burnham, Reform has pulled a blinder. A local working-class lad and newly-elected councillor, a tradesman with military and NHS service under his belt, Reform will give the Manchester mayor a real run for his money. Personally I think people can contest seats away from where they grew up or live – the country’s problems are transferable enough a Brummie will understand the plight of poor folks in Liverpool.

Still, in this instance, it helps to have a local fella given Burnham’s ‘king of the North’ schtick! More to the point, Kenyon contested Makerfield – his hometown – back in 2024, and we can take him at his word when he says he only wants to represent his local area, unlike the uber ambitious Burnham.

Nonetheless, it’s a hugely tight race. Reform has the demographic and political advantages, for sure. This should be a shoe-in. But – perverse as it may seem to many – Burnham has a star power which could nonetheless outweigh Reform’s edge.

And there are big variables at play! What if the Greens drop out? That massively helps Burnham. Frankly, there is more chance of that than the Tories quitting the race (though, if Badenoch swallowed her pride on that one, it would massively aid Reform too).

And, as I wrote yesterday, Brexit is on the ballot paper given Burnham’s Rejoiner fantasties, something Reform can exploit in this Leave-voting area. Burnham’s flip flopping should also be a point of focus in this summer showdown.

Here is a man who claims to represent change yet served as a Blairite posterboy.

This is the man, remember, who said he was “committed to my third term [as mayor]” only to do everything he can to become an MP a second time over.

This is also the man who, in his 2021 mayoral manifesto, pushed for a Clean Air Zone to charge polluting drivers £60 a day, yet in the face of public outcry not only dropped the plan but tried to present himself as the leading campaigner against charging. He even flipped on Israel to become a champion of Palestinian rights once it became expedient to do so.

This inconsistency is a big red flag and that’s before we get to Burnham’s nation-bankrupting spending plans. Make no mistake, if this man wins Makerfield, he will become Prime Minister. He and his supporters will point to by-election victory as evidence he is the only Labour leader who can defeat Farage and Reform.

The latter now has a battle royale on its hands, and plucky Robert Kenyon is the local lad who could change political history.