𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

The upcoming Makerfield by-election is among the greatest opportunities yet for Reform UK to strike a blow against Labour and signal it is just as great a threat to Sir Keir Starmer’s party as to the Conservatives.

Beating Andy Burnham and denying Labour members the opportunity to make him Prime Minister would demonstrate yet again the power of Reform as an electoral force. Reform last week celebrated winning council seats in a host of traditional Labour areas; the defeat of the Mayor of Greater Manchester in his political backyard would terrify Labour, crush morale and ensure the leadership election is conducted in an atmosphere of crisis.

Reform now faces the challenge of identifying the candidate who can challenge and defeat Mr Burnham and demolish Labour’s hopes of a revival in time for the next general election.

Here are some of the potential candidates:

A leading contender must be Robert Kenyon, who stood in the seat in 2024 and finished second. Reform’s popularity has surged since then and last week he was elected as a councillor (for Wigan Council’s Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward), winning more than twice as many votes as his Labour rival.

Mr Kenyon is a plumber – which will trigger memories of fellow plumber Hannah Spencer delivering a devastating blow to Labour for the Greens when she won the recent Gorton and Denton by-election. He has also served in the Army and boasts of having “done many a hard day’s work in my life”. This could prove a stinging attack line against Mr Burnham who has spent the bulk of his life inside the Labour machine.

He can also connect with voters who feel battered by the cost of living crisis – which may be even higher up the agenda when the by-election takes place as a result of fall-out from the war in Iran. Claiming to “know struggle”, he has described “growing up in a single parent household on free school dinners”.

Zia Yusuf is a nuclear-grade energy source at the heart of Reform, driving it forward with intense seriousness of ambition. If Nigel Farage becomes Prime Minister, he intends to make Mr Yusuf Home Secretary – but (unless we had the extraordinary spectacle of this key Government department being run by a member of the House of Lords) that means Mr Yusuf needs to win a Westminster seat.

The sooner he can get into the Commons, the better for the party. Reform must present itself as a Government in waiting, and needs to show it has an effective Home Secretary-in-waiting who can tackle the incendiary challenges of illegal immigration and organised crime.

Lanarkshire-born former entrepreneur Mr Yusuf is not known for his roots to the area but he would campaign with intensity and ambition. The 39-year-old would relish the challenge of denying Labour the option of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister as part of his dream of ousting a party he loathes.

George Woodward knows how to fight an effective ground campaign – and this by-election will be won through street by street campaigning. He stood in neighbouring Leigh and Atherton in July 2024 and finished an impressive second – and Labour’s popularity has crashed since then.

The biggest obstacle to him running for Makerfield is that he has just won election to St Helens Borough Council and he may well want to devote his full energies here. Reform is now the biggest party on the council and it needs to show it can improve residents’ lives to win their trust in time for the next general election.

Even if this is not the moment for him to launch a bid to enter parliament, this expert in metallurgy will likely play a leading role in forging Reform’s future.

Is it time for a comeback by Liverpool born-and-educated former Conservative party chairman Sir Jake Berry, who is now a strong Reform supporter? This election will be about more than the future of Makerfield, important though that is – Andy Burnham will be auditioning for the role of prime minister and at the heart of his pitch will be his vision for rebalancing the economy so regions far from London thrive.

There are few people in Britain who have thought more intently about this than Sir Jake, who was Northern Powerhouse minister when he was MP for Rossendale and Darwen, roughly an hour’s drive northeast of Makerfield.

He understands the despair communities feel about hollowed-out high streets and also has a keen understanding of the infrastructure businesses need to flourish; the prospect of going head to head with one of Britain’s most famous mayors would hold no fear for Sir Jake.

Former Greater Manchester police officer Maggie Oliver is among the highest profile campaigners against child sex abuse and is known UK-wide for her work on behalf of survivors of grooming gangs. Rumours that she might stand reached such a pitch that she said that while she was “hugely flattered that the public consider me as worthy of their trust in such a huge moment” she felt she could “do more good from the place I am”.

If she can be persuaded to change her mind and stand for Reform she would prove a powerful and galvanising adversary who would force Andy Burnham to defend his long record in Parliament and as a mayor.