Retail spending slows as Budget looms large


Retail sales growth slowed in September as rising inflation and a potentially taxing Budget weighed on households ahead of Christmas, figures suggest.

Total UK retail sales increased by 2.3% year on year in September, against growth of 2% in September 2024 and above the 12-month average growth of 2.1%, according to British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG data.

Food sales were up 4.3% year on year, driven largely by inflation rather than volume growth.

Non-food sales growth slowed to 0.7% against growth of 1.7% last September and below the 12-month average growth of 0.9%.

Online non-food sales increased by just 1% against last Septemberโ€™s growth of 3.4% and below the 12-month average growth of 1.8%.

Milder weather meant shoppers delayed refreshing autumn and winter wardrobes, but electrical sales saw a boost due to the release of Appleโ€™s latest iPhone and watch.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: โ€œWith the Budget looming large, and households facing higher bills, retail spending rose more slowly than in recent months.

โ€œRising inflation and a potentially taxing Budget is weighing on the minds of many households planning their Christmas spending.

โ€œRetailers also face difficult decisions about investment and hiring over the golden quarter given uncertainty over business rates bills arriving in April.

โ€œThe future of many large anchor stores and thousands of jobs remains in jeopardy while the Treasury keeps the risk of a new business rates surtax on the table.

โ€œBy exempting these shops when the Budget announcements are made, the Chancellor can reduce the inflationary pressures hammering businesses and households alike.โ€

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer retail and leisure markets at KPMG, said: โ€œOverall sales grew in September, driven largely by household goods and increased mobile phone sales, as prominent brands launched new models.

โ€œHowever, non-food sales are only growing by around 1.2% on average, indicating that spending continues to be very targeted as consumers remain cautious.

โ€œAs we enter the โ€˜golden quarterโ€™ for the sector, retailers are planning product ranges and promotions to try and increase that rate of sales growth.

โ€œThey are also mindful that the Budget is beginning to move into view, with related detail about business rates reform and a general need for a boost to consumer confidence.โ€

Separate figures from Barclays show consumer card spending was down by 0.7% year on year in September, a significant drop from the 0.5% growth recorded in August.

Clothing, furniture and beauty all had strong months, however, as consumers prioritised affordable โ€œpick-me-upโ€ purchases amid wider cutbacks.

The bank found consumer confidence in the strength of the UK, European and global economy all fell in September, to 25%, 29% and 26% respectively from 28%, 31% and 28%.

Consumersโ€™ confidence in their ability to live within their means, however, reached its highest level in more than four years at 78%, while confidence in household finances climbed to 74% โ€“ a seven-month high.

Almost half of UK adults (44%) reported making changes to their personal finances in anticipation of Novemberโ€™s Budget.

Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said: โ€œIt is encouraging to see that UK consumers feel confident in their ability to manage their budgets, amid ongoing cost-of-living concerns.

โ€œWeโ€™re continuing to see cautious spending, and shoppers are consistently seeking out areas they can cut back on.

โ€œHowever, multiple retail categories have proven to be resilient in recent months, with furniture, clothing, and beauty all remaining in growth since February of this year.โ€

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