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Scotland’s SNP First Minister John Swinney has put a second Scottish independence referendum back on the table, declaring it “perfectly conceivable” that a vote could take place within two years if the SNP secures a majority at Holyrood.

The First Minister used a BBC debate to press voters for an “emphatic mandate” that would, he argued, break the “constitutional logjam” blocking Scotland’s path to self-determination.

“It is perfectly conceivable to have a second referendum by 2028,” he said, adding that Scottish voters were “entitled” to shape their country’s constitutional future.

Greer stood alongside Swinney on the issue, arguing that decisions about Scotland’s direction belonged to Scots alone — a position that “Scotland’s hands” framing has become shorthand for within the independence movement. The Greens and the SNP governed together at Holyrood for three years before Humza Yousaf brought that arrangement to an abrupt end in 2024.

Opposition pushes back

GB News reported how Sarwar drew a clear line at the debate’s outset, arguing the ballot on May 7 had nothing to do with the constitutional question. Findlay was more emphatic, describing the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK as a catastrophe waiting to happen. Offord acknowledged the sensitivity of the issue, calling any fresh vote deeply divisive — while leaving the door marginally ajar by declining to foreclose on the possibility entirely if public support reached the 60 per cent threshold.

The path to any referendum runs through Westminster regardless of the Holyrood result. Starmer made his position clear last year — a second vote was not something he could foresee on his agenda — a stance the SNP responded to with barely concealed contempt. Streeting reinforced that line on Sunday.

“We’re not having one,” he told LBC. “This country has had enough of chaos.”

Nationalist tide

The debate comes at a moment when the political map of the devolved nations may be about to shift dramatically. Curtice has flagged the possibility that every devolved administration could be led by a nationalist party within days — a scenario that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.

The polling evidence points that way. YouGov’s MRP modelling for Holyrood gives the SNP a projected haul of 67 seats in a chamber of 129 — enough for a majority, however narrow. Wales is trending towards a Plaid Cymru victory. Sinn Féin is already the leading party at Stormont. If those projections hold, Curtice observed, the result would be nationalist leaders running all three devolved governments simultaneously.

On the referendum question, Curtice was measured.

“The SNP would say precedent suggests they have a mandate. We can probably anticipate the UK Government will say no. Swinney says he’s got something up his sleeve, but we don’t know what it is,” he said.