𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Soaring net migration drove Brexit voters away from the Conservative party as the Tories delivered the “very opposite of what they wanted”, according to Britain’s most respected election expert. Sir John Curtice has delivered a major analysis of how Reform UK has become the most popular political party in the country.

Alongside anger at “partygate” and the fall-out of Liz Truss’s mini-Budget, he pointed to the surge of new arrivals in the UK which saw net migration peak at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023.

Sir John said: “People who voted for Brexit now feel that Brexit has resulted in an increase in immigration, which is the very, very opposite of what they wanted.”

The challenge for the Conservatives, he said, is how to “get them back”.

Describing how supporters of the insurgent party “very, very much” expect a Reform UK Government would be able to reduce immigration, he said: “They believed Boris Johnson, and now they believe Nigel Farage on that.”

Sir John suggested the way forward for the Conservatives may be to “shift the agenda” away to other issues because “it’s very, very difficult to out-Farage Farage”.

He said the “real baggage” dragging down the Tory support is that “not many people are sure that it’s capable of providing us with competent government in any kind of area”. He warned it is “always very difficult for a government that’s been rejected on grounds of competence” to rebuild its reputation quickly.

Sir John set out the collapse in support for the two traditional parties of power, stating that fewer than 40% of the country intend to vote either Labour or Conservative. He described last month’s local election results as “frankly awful” for both Conservatives and Labour.

The Tories have lost a “whole barrel load of voters to Reform on the social conservative agenda” while the Greens are “picking up the more socially liberal and Left-wing end of the Labour coalition”.

In previous elections a party polling around 28% would not expect to win, but Sir John suggested that in today’s fragmented political landscape this is “potentially a winning number” for Reform.

A key challenge for Reform, he added, turning its support among people who did not vote in the 2024 election to the polls at the next contest.

In a major analysis for the National Centre for Social Research, he laid bare Reform’s core support base.

Mr Farage’s party commands the support of four of 10 people “whose highest educational qualification is less than an A-level” but just 9% of graduates. While 27% of those aged 55-plus support the party, this is true for only 18% of people in the 18-34 age group.

Reform is also more popular among the country’s men (28%) than women (19%). Six out of 10 Reform supporters are “very dissatisfied” with the NHS, compared with 51% of the general public.

Sir John reported that “75% of Reform supporters believe that migrants who come to Britain undermine the country’s culture” while “only 35% of the general public agree with them”.