𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Almost 4,000 migrants are loitering in camps waiting to cross the Channel, it has emerged. Duncan Capps, the border security commander, said the number of asylum seekers in northern France is roughly double the typical size of the cohorts in two tent cities.

But prices for those hoping to reach Britain have fallen to as low as £840. It is believed to be one of the lowest prices on record. Mr Capps said: “I think the French estimate at the moment is that there are almost 3,800 people between those two camps. Previously it was broadly about 2,000 between them. So, our understanding now from our French partners we work with closely is almost double what we would normally expect.

“There are a lot of people in the camps at the moment, which I think is bad in one respect because a lot of people are there, but it also represents the fact that the French are making it very difficult, particularly in the Dunkirk-Calais area, to get across.

“There is a moment with this from a criminal perspective where it stops being particularly viable. And part of our strategy is to drive it to a point where it is not worth them doing this because the cost of getting the boat, the engine, the risk of them being interdicted and jailed, is so much that actually they stop being in this business.”

Director-general of operations at the National Crime Agency, Rob Jones, told the Home Affairs Select Committee: “The fact that there are more migrants in northern France is not a good thing – it shows the intent is high but it shows they are struggling to make the crossing.”

Stressing that the people smugglers’ “business model is starting to shake”, he said: “It’s more likely than ever that you’re going to get arrested.

“It’s more likely than ever that your equipment is going to be seized,” adding that trying to cross the Channel was getting “riskier and riskier for everybody that’s involved”.

Mr Jones said the unsafe dinghies used by traffickers typically cost them about £14,000. And the NCA chief said ministers ramping up removals would help them defeat people smugglers.

He said: “You were concerned organised crime would allow them to just constantly traverse the Channel. That didn’t play out. There were attempts to do that, but the vast majority of those removals stuck. And that’s important.

“It’s one to watch in the future. The ability to return people quickly is helpful to us in undermining their business model.”

And Mr Capps admitted he had doubts about Shabana Mahmood’s one-in, one-out deal with France being a deterrent.

He said: “I wasn’t convinced it would be. But I think it has been.

“I would say it has been a success. We managed to return 1,631 illegal entrants, all of which were from countries we would have had difficulties returning otherwise.

“Did it scale to the level I would have liked it to? No, it didn’t.”

Asked on Wednesday about the biggest challenge he was facing, the interim head of the Home Office unit said: “I think the things that worry me most this year have been the increasing size of the boat and the increasing occupancy.

“You’ll have seen this year we had a boat with 230 people in it. Extraordinary.

“And it ought to be put on record that it is only a matter of time until we have a mass casualty event in the Channel. It is extraordinary that has not happened so far.

“You’ll be aware that my officers were involved in a rescue with the French in French waters where we rescued 168 people. None of them drowned. Quite an extraordinary thing on one of the Western launches. That worries me.”

Many people fear smugglers’ attempts to launch dinghies from Normandy could lead to an “invasion” of other coastal towns, such as Brighton, Southampton or Weymouth as the criminal gangs change their tactics to exploit weak points in the border.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham vowed to change tactics to tackle gangs bringing migrants across the Channel after a record 230 people made the journey in a single boat in August.

At the time, French authorities warned the dinghy was “buckling” in the water and could have led to tragedy. Labour’s one-in, one-out migrant deal with France collapsed after talks between London and Paris broke down. Officials admitted that too few people were removed under the scheme.

The Home Secretary insisted Labour, alongside other EU nations, wants to set up “return hubs” for failed asylum seekers. The proposal would see European nations deporting migrants to a third country. There, the migrants would be held until they can be returned to their home nations.