𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

The Prime Minister and the Chancellor can clink glasses and tell one another they have lived to fight another day, but cash-strapped Britons will fear the country is paying a terrible price for their growth-killing tax raids. Rachel Reeves was reportedly joined by Sir Keir Starmer and a raft of the Cabinet in her Downing Street address on Wednesday for birthday celebrations ahead of her turning 47 on Friday. If she is still in post by the time she turns 48, she can count it a personal triumph.

Sir Keir is expected to welcome Scottish MPs to Chequers tonight, just days after the party’s leader in Scotland called for him to stand down. The PM is not missing an opportunity to hug close MPs who are worried about dire polling as he fights to stay in the top job. Sir Keir and Ms Reeves looked in danger of losing their posts and their grace and favour homes at the start of the week, but ministers – many of whom would be given the boot in a new administration – stepped back from staging a coup.

Britain beyond Chequers and Downing Street is in trouble, and ordinary Britons will worry how they will keep up the mortgage payments on their own homes if their jobs disappear. The latest GDP figures show the economy “grew” by a mere 0.1% in the three months to December. Labour can no longer blame the country’s woes on Tory-era turmoil.

Construction had its worst quarterly performance in four years, and professional, scientific and technical activities also declined. Britain is in a state of weakness. Sir Keir can breathe a sigh of relief that attention in Westminster is focused on leadership plotting and the Mandelson-Epstein scandal rather than the economic danger which threatens jobs and livelihoods.

But the growth figures reflect the confidence-crushing actions of the Government, from the shock increase in employer National Insurance contributions to the freeze in income tax thresholds, the escalation in business rates and the chaos surrounding the Budget. The lack of a plan to jump-start the economy is glaring.

The Chancellor responded to the terrible GDP figures by saying the UK is “the fastest growing G7 economy in Europe”. In a race against hares, Ms Reeves is comparing the country with wheezing tortoises. On Wednesday, she said that when it comes to trade, the “biggest prize is clearly with the EU” and “further integration will require further alignment”.

As we approach the 10th anniversary of the vote to leave the European Union, the irony is that Britain is in the hands of a Government which loathes Brexit. The lack of ambition to reboot the country for a transformed global economy is mirrored by a lack of political will and strength to fix the UK’s weaknesses.

The Mandelson-Epstein scandal has left the pummelled PM at the mercy of the Labour Left. There is no chance of a Blair-style confrontation with the trade unions to bring sweeping reforms to the creaking and cash-guzzling public sector.

Former Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jonathan Ashworth has warned the PM will be making a “monumental mistake” if he fails to reform welfare and get young people into work, but a Government that had to roll back plans to restrict entitlements last year in the face of backbench Opposition is not match fit for this fight.

Sir Keir will hope that if he can hang onto power, Labour’s situation will gradually improve. Inflation is expected to glide downwards, and subsequent interest rates should make people feel better off. If this happens, he will claim to be delivering on his promise to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. And if the country hits net zero migration, he can try and convince voters he has made progress where the Conservatives failed.

If Andy Burnham cannot get into Parliament and both the Labour Left and the Right fail to unite around alternative leaders, Sir Keir may even do a Gordon Brown/John Major and stay in post all the way to the next election.

Millions of Britons have given up on Labour and care little about its internal machinations. But if at the time of the next election the country has failed to grow and Britons have paid an awful price for Treasury-driven economic sabotage, then Labour will face a terrible reckoning at the ballot box.