𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

When Sir Keir Starmer shuts his eyes and thinks of all that could go wrong in the coming months, he may see the towering figure of Rhun ap Iorwerth – a rugby-playing Welshman – charging in his direction, coming in for a tackle that could bring down his premiership.

Labour has run Wales ever since the era of self-government began after the country voted in favour of devolution by a mere 6,721 votes in the 1997 referendum. Sir Keir’s party has been the largest in every general election for more than a century but polls signal voters are going to bring Labour’s reign to a crashing end. A Labour catastrophe in May’s elections to the Welsh parliament – the Senedd – could convince the party’s worried MPs that a new leader is needed in Number 10 to save them from annihilation.

There is the real prospect of every UK nation other than England being led by a first minister from a party that wants to exit the United Kingdom – the SNP in Scotland, Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland and Plaid Cymru in Wales. Father-of-three Mr Iorwerth reported on the 1997 referendum as a television journalist, and as Plaid Cymru’s leader today he retains a reporter’s perspective on the significance of what is unfolding in his nation. He describes the potential end of “Labour dominance” as the “biggest story” since that historic vote.

“My job is to make sure that the right choice is made at this incredibly important junction in the history of Wales,” he says.

For many people in Plaid Cymru, protecting the Welsh language and making the case for ever-greater self-governance is a multi-generational family mission. His father, Edward, as well as being a composer, was the headteacher of his primary school on Anglesey. His mother, Gwyneth, was an ardent supporter of organisations at the heart of the modern revival in Welsh culture. He has spoken of how her passing in 2012 pushed him towards politics, convincing him he “couldn’t go through life without making a contribution if that was at all possible”.

He won Anglesey’s Senedd seat in a by-election the next year, taking nearly six out of 10 votes in a constituency which has been held in Westminster by the Conservatives and Labour in recent years. His charisma, confidence and broad telegenic smile led to some dubbing him “Kennedy Cymru” – and in June 2023 he took the reins of the party.

Having worked as BBC Wales’s chief political correspondent, he is now on the frontline of Welsh democracy. This is the equivalent of a football commentator clambering onto the pitch and taking a penalty kick. While the 53-year-old stresses he is not “for a second” saying it is “inevitable” Labour will lose power, he senses an “irresistible” desire for change. Besides, he argues, it is “fundamentally not normal” for one party to always lead the government.

Scottish Labour lost power to the Alex Salmond’s SNP in 2007 and the pro-independence party has held the first ministership since. The fear in Labour circles will be that the same change is afoot in Wales nearly two decades later. Plaid and Reform UK are fighting for first place. The Senedd’s election system means it is highly unlikely any party will win an overall majority but Mr Iorwerth favours leading a minority government rather than forging a coalition.

He argues this could unlock a “new kind of collaboration in Wales”, saying: “We don’t want to move from one closed political shop to another.”

He says he “absolutely” believes Wales can be independent, but his is a gentle brand of nationalism and he has “no interest whatsoever in Wales being isolated”.

“Why wouldn’t you want to have a debate on whether there is a different way of governing our country?” he asks.

Pointing to his mother’s birthplace in Liverpool, he adds: “We are bound together in so many ways that I have no interest in breaking up.”

When does he think Wales will achieve independence?

He has a ready answer: “When the people of Wales have been persuaded.”

While some people will go to the polls hoping to push a Welsh nation state closer to reality, legions of others will be motivated by worries about low earnings, education rankings which put children in Wales behind counterparts in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland in science, maths and reading, grinding transport problems and deep challenges facing the health service.

Education failings are “holding back” opportunities to “create jobs, to build business, to create wealth, to build the kind of society we need”, this son of teachers says, adding: “So, yes, we can do better than this and I believe we will.”

He shares his parents’ passion for the Welsh language and a priority has been building cross-party support to ensure it thrives in the 21st century. Whether you can speak the language or not, he insists, it is “something for us to treasure”.

Reform has pledged to promote “full equality between the Welsh and English languages” but has said it will move away from “arbitrary numerical targets”. Good will towards the language isn’t enough, he argues, warning “that’s not how the real world works”.

Plaid received a boost in October when it won the former Labour heartland seat of Caerphilly, pushing Reform into second place in the Senedd by-election. But if Nigel Farage’s party emerges as the biggest party in Wales it will turbocharge Reform’s conviction it can form the next Government at a general election.

Change is in the air throughout Britain and if Mr Iorwerth becomes First Minister in May he will have the chance to shape not just Wales but relations between the UK’s nations. He would also be the first person to lead the Senedd from North Wales. Many people would find commuting between Anglesey and Cardiff exhausting but he says he is “fortunate” in having a “source of energy that I can tap into from somewhere”.

Plaid was founded in August 1925 and, a century later, it has its best chance yet of leading Wales’ government.

Mr Iorwerth admits that the prospect of what may lie ahead is in many ways “daunting”, but he adds: “I use that word in the most positive of terms.”

“I believe in Wales,” he explains. “I believe in the potential of my nation. I believe in everybody in Wales being able to contribute to dealing with the deep, deep issues that we face.”

He feels the pressure to “get this right” if he wins the opportunity to lead this ancient nation. But that, he notes, is “in the hands of the people of Wales”.