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The likely £500 increase to the state pension will be a lifeline for many older people struggling with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. But first they will have to get through this winter, with energy bills predicted to rise again within months just as people switch their heating back on.

New figures suggest the state pension is on course to go up by around £500 next April under the triple lock. It comes amid a fierce debate over the future of the policy, which guarantees that payments are bumped up by at least 2.5% each year to protect OAPs from poverty.

Critics argue that many pensioners are well off and that the country can’t afford the measure as younger workers struggle to get on the housing ladder.

But supporters of the triple lock point out that older people can’t simply take on another job for extra income and insist Britain’s state pension is low compared to other wealthy countries.

Around one in six pensioners in the UK – almost two million – are living in poverty.

And research revealed by the Express this month found that more than 100,000 elderly households are in energy debt.

Campaigners warn that figure is just the tip of the iceberg, with many others taking heartbreaking measures to avoid going into debt including being forced to choose between heating and eating or whether to take a hot shower.

Energy bills are expected to remain high this winter following an eye-watering 13% jump in July amid the Iran war, with a further 2% hike forecast for October.

There have also been warnings that the heatwaves the country has sizzled in this summer will push up food prices over the coming months.

It shows why next April’s state pension increase is desperately needed by many older people.