𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

The world is seemingly a more dangerous place than it has been in a while, and people are understandably talking about whether Britain could once again enact a method of conscription. It was scrapped in the 1960s after first being adopted in the UK in 1916 during the First World War. But, in March last year, a European Union (EU) briefing on mandatory military service outlined what considerations are taken into account when deciding whether to force citizens to serve in the forces.

If the British Government decides it must be done here, they may consider factors along these lines. Firstly, the EU report said “national security threats and the degree of threat perception are essential variables”. It added: “Expert analysis highlights that countries such as Greece, Cyprus, and Nordic and Baltic countries, whose interests are under threat from ‘unresolved conflicts in their neighbourhood’, adhere to conscription.”

Additionally, research suggested that “non-aligned” nations that do not participate in military alliances “may choose to maintain large armies through conscription because no other state is obliged to assist them in case of an attack”.

Another thing to consider, the document states, is whether militaries need conscripts in the era of modern warfare, as technology may serve as a substitute.

In 2024, for example, the United States reportedly considered proposing the integration of a platoon of robots into its armoured brigade combat teams, the EU paper says.

“Some experts also believe that short conscript service periods may not equip soldiers for modern warfare,” it added.

“Advances in artificial intelligence and discussions about the development of (lethal) autonomous weapons may support this argument.”

However, others suggest modern warfare “continues to be labour intensive”, with the current era requiring “new expertise in the cyber and space domains, while traditional military professions remain indispensable”.

“Even if a military is technologically advanced, mass may also be useful if the force structure cannot absorb personnel losses. Triggered by media reports about new NATO troop number targets, an expert considers ‘more European countries are going to have to look at conscription if they’re going to have any hope of meeting their targets,'” the briefing says.

Economic and financial factors are also important, of course, with much debate over whether a professional army, an all-volunteer force, or a hybrid force would be more cost-effective.

“Most economists consider conscription results in an ‘inefficient match between people and jobs’ and in ‘output losses’ which could have been avoided,” the EU document read.

“The basis of this argument lies in the belief that conscripted armies ignore the comparative advantage of each person, leading to lower productive capacity. Moreover, from a societal perspective, a conscription system shifts the burden of manpower costs from society (i.e. taxpayers) onto young conscripts.”

Finally, public opinion would be thought about, as well as “how society has historically perceived conscription and the military in general play crucial roles in this discussion”.

Polls cited in the Niinistö Report suggest public opinion “tends to be sensitised by the threat environment”.

The briefing added: “Research indicates that a population’s strong willingness to fight a) plays a crucial role in shaping political decisions regarding conscription, and b) can influence the effectiveness of conscription by fostering a sense of unity and enhancing morale.”

Some Brits would be exempt from conscription, author and historian David Swift previously suggested to The Express.

He said: “Today, since there is such an urgent need to rebuild Britain’s defence industries and industrial capacity, I would expect that people in these important occupations would be exempt.

“Or even that people could be ‘conscripted’ into working in these industries, and that military conscription would target unemployed graduates – this would be very popular with lots of people and especially the Blue Labour thinkers behind Starmer.”

Last year, the British Government said it was not considering conscription. But in February, the UK’s Defence Secretary indicated he was interested as he met Norwegian soldiers who are undertaking national service.

At a border patrol station in north east Norway, John Healey told conscripts: “We have no conscription in the UK.

“I’m really interested you have conscription but you have it as a competition.

“You are not told to come into the military, you apply. Not everybody has an opportunity.”