The England selection decision looming large before The Ashes
On a quiet autumn afternoon at Lord’s in October, captain Ben Stokes and head coach Brendon McCullum will meet national selector Luke Wright and ECB director Rob Key to pick England’s Ashes squad.
Wright used to be the one who would make the phone calls, delivering the good news and the painful blows, but McCullum has since taken on that responsibility, seeing it as his duty to speak personally with each player. Wright will often follow up with a call to those closest to the cut to explain the decision in more detail and discuss a path for their return.
Wright will have spent the summer receiving briefings from scouts across county cricket and beyond, while analysts will have drilled down through deep data wells to model whose game will suit the Australian summer. The reality, however, is that McCullum is a man who trusts his gut over spreadsheets and algorithms, and his squad is mostly set.
There is little chance to alter minds now, with no more Tests between Monday’s dramatic finale at The Oval and the first ball in Perth in November. England already have their top seven set in stone, despite the struggles of Ollie Pope and Zak Crawley. The seam attack starts to pick itself if fitness allows, with Mark Wood and Jofra Archer requiring cryogenic preservation over the autumn in time to thaw in the Australian sun.
What did England learn from this compelling series with India? Plenty, but The Ashes is a different game. England will face a very different bowling attack in contrasting conditions, on surfaces that offer bounce with the Kookaburra ball in hand. Playing India at Headingley on the solstice and Australia at the MCG on Boxing Day are both, technically, incidents of elite Test cricket, but they are entirely unique endeavours.
England, and cricket, will undoubtedly have picked up some new fans over the past few weeks, and it is only right that they are made aware of the humbling circle on which the Test game runs: your team will compete gamely in home conditions, looking genuinely good at this, before travelling to a far-flung part of the world where most of their skills will be irrelevant.
England have at least reaffirmed a few things. Crawley averaged about 30 here and will forever average about 30. Ben Duckett will be occasionally magnificent and get out to the straight ball. Pope will get out. England have the best middle order in the world. England’s bowling attack isn’t quite good enough.
Gus Atkinson remains the most likely pace bowler to join Archer and Wood when fit, and he will be required to put in an almighty shift when they’re not. Brydon Carse will have a big part to play and Josh Tongue will travel, while Jamie Overton was able to hit 90mph at The Oval – he is a favourite of McCullum, and Key has spoken about pace as an essential tool in Australia.
Chris Woakes may not have been in line to travel anyway but his dislocated shoulder will further damage his chances – Sam Cook has been excellent with the Kookaburra ball in county cricket and may go in Woakes’ place as the subtle seamer. The more significant shoulder injury is to Ben Stokes, who must be fit to bat and bowl for five Tests if England are to pull off a first series win over Australia since 2015.
Some questions remain unanswered, like what to do with Jacob Bethell’s uncorked talent. His summer carrying drinks was not particularly instructive or beneficial for his development. Will he spend the winter being dragged around Australia as England’s back-up batter? There will at least be some Lions games alongside the Tests in which to build red-ball experience.
And then there is the question of spin. Will England need a front-line spinner in every Test? Yes, certainly, insisted Ricky Ponting this week, even in Perth where pace prevails. Ponting endorsed Shoaib Bashir, whose height and bounce he likened to Nathan Lyon and whose off-breaks could find some turn in Mitchell Starc’s foot marks.
Bashir had his moments against India, winning the Lord’s Test with the final wicket of Mohammed Siraj before a broken finger ended his series. But if he is picked for an Australian pitch which later fails to degrade into a turning track, there is little upside in a 21-year-old whose batting and fielding are akin to that of a garden cricketer.
Liam Dawson didn’t seize his chance at Old Trafford and that may ultimately count against him, and against the notion that the County Championship is the place to find Test players. Jack Leach is bowling well for Somerset and carries rich Ashes hinterland while Tom Hartley has impressed for Lancashire this summer. But once you’ve been dropped from McCullum’s Test side, it is notoriously difficult to earn a recall on county form.
Rehan Ahmed is the wildcard, a genuine all-rounder who could even replace Pope at No 3 should England need a reshuffle during the series. Ahmed is still raw and his leg-spin is not a typically English weapon, but he would complement Joe Root’s off-breaks when Stokes needs variety in attack.
Yet it is Bashir who still holds the spinner’s place right now. He is the pet project that Key and McCullum started back in 2023, at a Lions training camp in the UAE when they were wowed by his smooth style and high release, and chose to catapult him into the Test team. When they sit down with Stokes and Wright in October, there will be many names to discuss and scenarios to consider. But if there’s one thing we know about Bazball, rarely does it lose faith in its chosen ones.
Ashes 2025-26 Test matches
First Test, Optus Stadium in Perth: 21-25 November
Second Test, Gabba in Brisbane: 4-8 December
Third Test, Adelaide Oval in Adelaide: 17-21 December (day-night Test)
Fourth Test, MCG in Melbourne: 26-30 December
Fifth Test, SCG in Sydney: 4-8 January
