𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Angela Rayner faces the biggest decision of her political life as she mulls whether or not to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. The Prime Minister has reportedly told allies he does not want to stage a reshuffle after the May elections. Sir Keir will have no political capital left to overhaul his Government; his biggest fear will be that his inbox stacks up with resignation letters from ministers in the wake of what are expected to be horrific results.

Conservative peer Robert Hayward, a highly respected election expert, suggests Labour could lose 1,850 seats in the local elections with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party gaining 1,550 and the Greens winning 500.

Traditionally, one of the biggest problems for a leadership challenger is overcoming the British aversion to displays of naked ambition. One of Michael Heseltine’s greatest difficulties was that his hunger for the top job was all too obvious.

But if the results are as cataclysmic as Lord Hayward suggests – and if the party loses power in Wales – Ms Rayner can say she is acting in the national interest to stop Reform UK taking power after the next general election. For generations, the greatest fear a Labour Government has faced has been losing power to the Tories; but ceding power to Mr Farage represents a change of an entirely different order.

Ms Rayner can summon reporters to a press conference and tell them why Sir Keir is a man of decency, integrity and diligence; she can describe him as a friend she will always admire – and then make the case why he has to go.

Allies of Ms Rayer will tell her this could be a now or never moment. The longer she delays, the longer rivals have to win support.

Every day she holds back gives fans of Health Secretary Wes Streeting more time to garner support among Labour MPs. If she waits months, the risk builds that Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham will find a way back into Westminster.

If Labour slumps yet further in the polls, activists will look for anyone who can stand behind a lectern and not disgrace the party. The spotlight will fall on Energy Secretary Ed Miliband – a superstar among Labour members – and the likes of Defence Secretary John Healey.

Supporters of Mr Burnham will urge her to strike a deal with him; to agree a common agenda to win back the millions of voters who have abandoned Labour since the 2024 landslide victory. They will encourage her to play the role of kingmaker and name her price.

But Mrs Rayner has already been Deputy Prime Minister. She knows full well that this role brings little true power; it is a miserable thing to hold an exalted office yet spend each day angling for influence.

Right now, she stands a decent chance of becoming Labour’s first woman prime minister. Is Labour really going to have yet another man in the top job?

Politico’s poll of polls shows the Conservatives, Labour and the Greens all tied on 17% with Reform gliding above on 25%. These are desperate times for a once-mighty party.

Sir Keir may well argue it would be self-indulgent for Labour to stage a leadership contest when ordinary Britons are wrestling with the post-Iran cost of living crisis. But if Mrs Rayner does not stand and Labour goes the way of the old Liberal Party a century ago and is consigned to electoral oblivion she may spend the rest of her days burdened with the deepest regret. Not acting could come with a terrible cost.