𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

The May 7 local elections are finally upon us, with polls opening at 7am on Thursday for those who have not already voted by post. And for Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the crunch ballot could prove pivotal.

Sir Keir cannot be voted out directly, as the elections are for councillors and mayors running local services like schools, libraries and adult social care, not MPs in Westminster. Yet the results could still have a dramatic impact on national policy or who is in No 10.

Local elections are often a temperature check on voters’ feelings towards the UK Government, so a bad result for Labour could heap further pressure on Sir Keir.

Labour faces losing hundreds of council seats across England and losing control of the Welsh Senedd for the first time. The expected electoral bloodbath means MPs are reportedly plotting to oust the Prime Minister by calling on him to resign.

On Wednesday, Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden insisted that Sir Keir was in a “resolute” mood and that triggering a leadership contest would be a mistake.

Sir Keir had earlier vowed to go into polling day “fighting for every vote” but acknowledged Labour could be in for a “challenge”.

He also wrote in Wednesday’s Mirror newspaper: “On Thursday, when you go to put your vote in the ballot box, there’s a clear choice on that piece of paper.

“Unity or division. Progress versus the politics of anger. The right plan for our country up against easy answers that will lead us nowhere.”

According to the Institute for Government, it is “far from unusual” to have a change of PM without a General Election. In recent years, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak all took office for the Tories without an election.

It says “the key is whether a new PM can continue to carry the confidence of Parliament – ie, whether their party has a majority”.

Because Labour will continue to have a majority at a national level, it is not a given that the PM will change.