𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Nigel Farage celebrated Robert Jenrick’s defection with a glass of champagne and declared it was the moment that marked the “realignment of the Right”. But was the spectacular day of high drama the point that Reform sealed the deal or the formation of a circular firing squad that only benefits the Left?

Each of the main players – Farage, Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch – has taken a massive gamble. Although speculation about Jenrick’s intentions has been intense ever since he lost the Conservative leadership contest to Badenoch, the way his departure unfolded left Westminster stunned. No one had got wind of his intention to jump ship, apart from, it seems, one of his team, who alerted the Tory leader.

Instead of dealing with it behind the scenes, Badenoch revealed she had sacked him in a video posted on social media that is one of possibly the most, brutal firings in modern politics – and the bar for that is already set incredibly high.

It was a shock and awe move that showed would-be defectors that their leader is ruthless and has chutzpah. It also sends out a message to voters that Badenoch is trying to move the party on from its in-fighting days.

But it has caused fury among Jenrick’s allies who feel the way it was handled was unnecessary and it will leave them considering their options.

The incident could set off a whole chain of events that Badenoch has not predicted.

For Farage, the risks are potentially bigger. Bringing on board a man who clearly has his sights firmly on No 10 is something the Reform leader will be keeping an eye on.

But a second big Tory in the space of a couple of days – he follows on from former Cabinet minister Nadhim Zahawi – leaves the Reform leader open to the accusation that his party is morphing into a version of the Conservatives.

Farage has always said he will only take on figures from the rival camp if they have something good to offer and Jenrick definitely ticks that box. He has years of Cabinet experience, high energy and understands the mood of the country has shifted in a way that many in Westminster remain completely oblivious to.

But Jenrick’s long-tenure in the top ranks of the Tories will be a stick used by opponents to beat them with. And supporters will need plenty of reassurance that Reform remains true to the ideals it was set up with.

The gamble for Jenrick is: has he backed the right gang? Reform’s rise seems unstoppable but there are still potentially three years until a general election.

When Boris Johnson was elected with a good majority, it was widely expected he would be Prime Minister for a decade, but a pandemic and a war, plus a number of party crises soon put paid to that. Keir Starmer secured a bigger majority but will be lucky to hang on past May. British politics is volatile now in a way that was not seen for three decades.

Jenrick also faces being treated with suspicion by those that were there from the early days.

Will he be welcomed or sidelined by those who see him as a rival?

What is clear from the way that the sacking and defection played out is that this is a deeply personal grudge match now between Badenoch, Farage and Jenrick. But their personal gambles are nothing compared to the impact this could all have for the country.

We have been landed, almost by default, with a government of staggering incompetence that has a sinister authoritarian streak that runs through its core. It has failed to deliver on its promises while forcing on us seismic decisions that it was too cowardly to put before voters.

Businesses are in despair, illegal migrants are laughing all the way to their hotels and taxpayers are left with increasingly little reward for their hard work. If the growing animosity between the Tories and Reform is a splintering of the Right rather than realignment, then the only beneficiary is this destructive Labour government.

The Left has always fallen into the trap of putting ideological purity over gaining power and the Right must not make the same mistake. Political differences and personal ambitions must come second to the country’s future.

There is a real danger of a form of mutual destruction that allows Labour to slip back in because the Right is divided. Both sides must remember who their true enemies are – this slippery, sinister socialist government and it must be defeated.