Scotland to be hit by massive political earthquake – who will be the b | Politics | News


The White House aside, thereโ€™s one other place where Keir Starmer is even more unpopular than he is in his own country. Scotland.

Anger over immigration, jobs and high energy bills are about to trigger a political earthquake. Just two years ago, polling suggested that the Scottish Labour Party, led by Anas Sarwar, would oust the SNP. The reverse has happened since Sir Keir entered Downing Street as Prime Minister. Things have got so bad for Labour they could even come third, behind Nigel Farageโ€™s Reform UK, in this weekโ€™s Scottish elections.

Antipathy towards Westminster means the nationalists are on course to remain the largest party. Some data suggest they could secure a majority.

Reform UK is on course to become the main opposition in Holyrood.

Thatโ€™s an extraordinary feat Farageโ€™s party โ€“ led in Scotland by Lord Offord โ€“ which had one MSP in the previous parliament.

In some places, notably Glasgow, Reform is giving the SNP a run for its money.

With frustration mounting over Labourโ€™s decisions in London, the SNP is expected to pick up the bulk of protest voters from the Left, while Reform will gather support from the Right.

In the East End of Glasgow, where the cost of living has hit families hard and immigration is an issue, many working-class voters are backing Reform.

It is a similar situation in Aberdeen, but instead of immigration, oil and gas is the key issue.

Ed Milibandโ€™s ban on further drilling in the North Sea has enraged many voters living in Europeโ€™s oil capital, and that too is benefiting Reform.

Both Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Farage have made repeated visits to the North East of Scotland to give their backing to more drilling, a decision which is popular with voters.

Sarwar has tried to distance himself from Sir Keir by calling for a change in No 10 in February.

But it has failed to turn the tide.

The SNP is on course for a comfortable victory and a fifth term in office because they still have the backing of independence supporters.

In contrast, the unionist vote has fractured between four parties.

If the SNP wins an outright majority, John Swinney, the partyโ€™s leader, has said he will demand that the Prime Minister allow another independence referendum.

It is an issue that still splits the country down the middle.

And itโ€™s about to be dragged to the surface by the earthquake thatโ€™s only days away.

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