𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Wales is known for three types of red: The scarlet of the rugby jersey, the crimson dragon at the heart of national folklore, and the red of the Labour party. Labour has enjoyed extraordinary support in Wales since the 1922 election, consistently emerging as the biggest party. But unless the polls are spectacularly wrong, either pro-independence Plaid Cymru or Reform UK will win the largest shares of seats in the Senedd in Cardiff Bay in Thursday’s election.

The May 7 contest coincides with polls to decide the make-up of English councils – it is suggested Labour could lose 1,850 seats – and the Scottish parliament, where Labour faces the nightmare scenario of being pushed into fourth place behind the Greens, Reform and a victorious SNP.

A party which won the 2024 election which a landslide has alienated voters throughout the country and Labour goes into the final days of its campaign with reports of leadership plotting making front pages. Health Secretary Wes Streeting is said to have secured the support of enough MPs to challenge the PM and it is claimed Mayor of Greater Manchester has a plan to return to Westminster within “weeks”.

There is nothing new about prime ministers getting a kick in the shins from voters in council elections. But losing Wales – the electoral homeland of Keir Hardie, Aneurin Bevan, Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock – could be the knockout blow.

Losing to Plaid Cymru will stir fears that Wales will go the way of Scotland. The SNP won a single seat more than Labour in 2007 and has been in power ever since.

If pro-independence parties lead the governments in Edinburgh and Cardiff – with Sinn Fein holding the first ministership in Belfast – civil servants will wonder how long it will be before they have to organise referendums on Scottish and Welsh independence and Irish unification.

Labour has held power in Wales since the era of self-government began in 1999. Any Government will make decisions during that time which irritate voters – and opposition parties have blasted Labour for the expansion of 20mph zones and the state of health, education and the economy – but Sir Keir cannot put the full weight of the blame for the loss of Wales on ministers in the Senedd.

Decisions taken by Sir Keir and Chancellor Rachel Reeves within weeks of arriving in Wales sent shockwaves through the UK

On a sunny afternoon outside the theatre in Newport I meet Plaid Cymru candidate Peredur Owen Griffiths. He remembers the horror which greeted the scrapping of universal entitlement to winter fuel support.

When campaigning in last year’s Caerphilly by-election he met a women in her 80s: “She said to me, ‘I’ve voted Labour all my life. And do you know, when they came into power in Westminster again I thought, great, this is going to be change. The first thing they did was take away my winter fuel allowance… I will never forgive them for that.”

But beyond the frustration on the doorsteps, he detects a longing for change.

“[All] we’ve ever had in Wales is the Labour way of doing things. And it’s time for a change, it’s time for fresh eyes, for ambition, to make the most of what we have got, and to have faith in the Welsh people, to pull together and to be ambitious for the country.”

Reform UK Welsh leader Dan Thomas is also competing in the same Casnewydd Islwyn constituency, which will send six members to the Senedd.

The former leader of Barnet London Borough Council has returned to the land of his birth and childhood, where Nigel Farage has presented the election as a referendum on Sir Keir.

“The Starmer drama needs to end,” Mr Thomas says. “It’s just u-turn after u-turn, poor judgment after poor judgment. We’re tired of it.”

The campaign has played out against intensifying outrage at Sir Keir’s decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States.

Mr Thomas is incredulous at the choice: “What on earth is Keir Starmer doing, bringing back somebody from the Blair years? Why did he try so hard to give him that job? Surely there were other people?”

This taps into longing he detects for “fresh faces” and new ideas.

“I don’t think we’re in a world of kind of Left or Right anymore,” he said. “We’re in a world of pragmatism: who’s got the best ideas? And that’s what Reform is offering.”

If the election looks bad for Labour, the polls also point to a harrowing night for the Conservatives. One suggests the Tories could end up in fifth place, behind the Greens, with only three of the 96 Senedd seats.

Natasha Asghar, the top-placed Conservative candidate in Casnewydd Islwyn shows no hint of defeatism when we meet at a cafe on a ridge above the lush countryside which borders Newport. The constituency is ablaze with anger, she claims, at the PM.

“Quite frankly, everyone wants him gone,” she says. “He should have gone months ago.”

Although Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorweth has ruled out an independence referendum in the first-term of a Government, Ms Asghar – a former member of his party – insists the desire to break away is “ingrained in their DNA”.

That is Plaid Cymru’s ultimate goal,” she says. “I don’t care how they sugarcoat it.”

Labour candidate Jayne Bryant deploys a similar attack line, describing independence as Plaid’s reason for existence, while saying Reform wants to put “neighbour against neighbour”.

She has served as Wales’ cabinet minister for housing and local government and is fighting for voters to once again put their trust in Labour, insisting it has a pipeline of policies ready to address the challenges facing constituents.

Ms Bryant says they need a “representative who shows up and can look them in the eye”.

This is not an election about whether people prefer Sir Keir or Mr Farage, she argues, saying: “You know, their names will not appear on the ballot paper here in Wales.”

Ms Bryant and fellow candidates will not waste an hour in the run-up to Thursday but the election is taking place in a nation that has felt the full impact – for good or ill – of choices taken in Downing Street and the Treasury. The final result will be part of Sir Keir’s legacy.